The Copenhagen Challenge: Prospects for Successful Climate Negotiations [ PDF ]

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China: Stuck in the Middle

Lynn Kirshbaum

Global climate change has created two opposing groups of countries: the developed and the developing. Stuck in limbo are the emerging economies: those countries that have made significant economic progress, but are still, on a per capita GDP basis, developing. China is a prime example of such a country. As the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, China is criticized for its inaction, but in turn has been vocal in demanding that developed countries reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions.

Despite its remarkable economic growth over the past two decades, China’s per capita GDP still qualifies it as a developing country. However, China emits four times as much CO2 as the U.S. and six times as much as the European Union or Japan for every unit of GDP [i]. Despite its polluter status, China has been adamant that developed countries uphold the terms of the Kyoto Protocol as well as the Bali Roadmap, especially in regards to cutting emissions and providing technical transfers and financial support to the developing world. Recently, China demanded that developed countries commit to reducing their emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2020 under the agreements that will be produced in Copenhagen in December [ii].

In response to the U.S. House of Representatives passing the American Clean Energy and Security Act, Li Gao, an official with the Climate Change Department of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that the US did not live up to international expectations when it approved the bill, noting that the emission target stated in the bill “is far away from what China and the Group of 77 developing countries have requested” of developed countries [iii].

Though its demands on developed countries are high, China’s own commitments are vague. In 2007, China released its Climate Change Program, a comprehensive summary of pre-existing policies with a positive impact on pollution mitigation or improving energy efficiency. In its 4 trillion yuan (US $586 billion) financial stimulus plan, China touted that 350 billion yuan would be spent on ecological and environmental projects and another 160 billion yuan would be spent on innovation and R&D. However, much of this money was already slated to be spent, and very little new investment was added. Beijing officials often use these as examples of China’s efforts to combat climate change, and likely will continue to do so come December, should developed countries maintain their current positions.

In an interview with the Financial Times in February, China’s Premier Wen Jiabao said that his country “supports the Copenhagen conference,” and that the Chinese government will make it a “top priority” to tackle the challenge of climate change [iv]. He noted however, that it is “difficult for China to take quantified emission reduction quotas at the Copenhagen conference, because [China] is still at an early stage of development,” explaining that Europe had begun to industrialize several hundred years ago, whereas China has only been industrializing for several dozen [iv]. Though Wen’s facts are valid, it must also be recognized that China has leapt to the fore of industrialization, surpassing even the U.S. in GHG emissions. Therefore, China should not take a backseat when it comes to enacting policies to combat climate change, but rather should take a proactive stance and be a leader among developing nations.

In an effort to accomplish this, in May of this year, China’s NDRC released a position paper on the Copenhagen conference. It stated that developed countries should uphold the “common but differentiated responsibilities” as outlined by the Kyoto Protocol, and developing countries should be able to take “nationally appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions” [v].However, these positions leave much room for interpretation. Though there should not be a one size fits all climate policy, there should be some framework guiding the responsibilities of individual countries, with consideration given to a myriad of variables, not only GDP levels.

Zhenhua Xie, China’s special representative on climate change, wrote in an article in The Guardian shortly after the release of the NDRC’s report: “China has no other choice but to pursue sustainable development in order to meet the basic needs of its people and to eradicate poverty. In this process, the world is assured that China will make every effort to address climate change” [vi]. He also discussed developed countries’ obligations, stating that success in Copenhagen will be dependent upon the “realization of the full, effective and sustained implementation” of Kyoto, and that non-protocol countries, i.e. the U.S., should “undertake comparable commitments with quantified emission reduction targets,” and that all developed countries should fulfill their financial support and technology transfer obligations [vi].

To understand the views of Chinese officials on climate change, it is important to realize that economic development is paramount to the Chinese government, as this is what allows the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to maintain its legitimacy, and thus national stability. Until recently, the Chinese government saw environmental and climate change laws as a complete hindrance to economic prosperity, but recently recognized the long-term economic benefits of pursuing environmentally sustainable policies.

This has come to the fore in the country’s energy policies: as China continues to pull more of its population out of poverty, demand for energy will increase as more people are connected to the electric grid and are able to purchase products which use electricity. If the Chinese government wishes to maintain stability and power, it will have to keep these populations happy, which means providing them with energy resources. This has resulted in a Chinese climate change policy more concerned with improving energy efficiency than reducing emissions: China has recently stated that they plan to attain 20% of their energy from renewables by 2020, and will continue their yearly goals of improving energy efficiency [vii].

Regardless of how the government makes these changes, China will only pursue policies deemed economically beneficial. Currently, Chinese officials believe this requires technology transfers and financing from developed countries. Though Japan, Italy, and Germany all have set up either technology transfer programs or joint R&D programs with China, the U.S. will only consider joint venture R&D [viii]. Private U.S. firms have and continue to work with Chinese firms, but the governments have been unable to reach an agreement on this issue. Chief U.S. climate negotiator Todd Stern made a three day trip to China in early June to discuss potential terms of the Copenhagen agreement. Though no definitive documents were expected to be produced at these meetings, many around the world were disappointed with the results as Chinese representatives to the Bonn conference announced soon after the meeting’s close that China would not be bringing cuts in their overall emissions to the table in December.

As the Copenhagen conference draws near, it is imperative that all countries, regardless of their status as a developing or developed economy, work together to create and implement policies that will be beneficial to all in the long-term. For its part, China must assume a leadership role among developing countries not only in making demands on the developed world, but also by accepting responsibility for its own emissions.

Works Cited

[i] Todd Stern, Remarks at Center for American Progress, June 3, 2009. PDF

[ii] Chris Buckley, “China tells rich nations to cut emissions by 40 percent,” Reuters, May 21, 2009.

[iii] Li Jing, “China unhappy with US climate bill,” China Daily, June 30, 2009.

[iv] Lionel Barber, “Transcript: Wen Jiabao,” Financial Times, February 2, 2009.

[v] NDRC, “Implementation of the Bali Roadmap: China’s Position on the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference,” May 20, 2009.

[vi] Zhenhua Xie, “China has no other choice than to pursue sustainable development,” The Guardian, May 27, 2009.

[vii] “China eyes 20% renewable energy by 2020,” China Daily, June 10, 2009.

[viii] Shaun Tandon, “US draws line with China on climate technology,” AFP June 22, 2009.

SUMMER 2009 Climate Alert

The Copenhagen Challenge: Prospects for Successful Climate Negotiations [ PDF ]

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