The Copenhagen Challenge: Prospects for Successful Climate Negotiations [ PDF ]

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Kyoto in Retrospect

John-Michael Cross

Thirty-seven countries, representing nearly 40% of 1990 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (excluding LULUCF), committed to emission reductions under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Members of this group included the developed world (with the exception of the U.S.) and former Soviet nations. By 2005, these nations reduced their emissions by 11% below 1990 levels. However, this is primarily due to the Soviet countries' economic collapse of the early 1990s, not because of climate change policies. By contrast, the remaining countries together increased their emissions by 7.5%, with few individual countries expected to meet their Kyoto commitments [i].

The Kyoto Protocol succeeded in implementing international-scale binding GHG emission caps and market-based flexibility mechanisms. It was limited in that it set no long range goals for emission reductions, did not adequately involve developing countries, and did not provide enough incentives to motivate countries to join the agreement or to comply with their commitments [ii]. Global emissions increased by 25% from 1990 to 2005, highlighting these limitations [i] .

A more effective international climate agreement is essential to slow the effects of climate change. Average atmospheric CO2 concentrations have reached 387 ppm and will continue to climb [iii]. This is projected to increase the global average temperature during this century by 2.5-4.5°C over pre-industrial levels. Anthropogenically-induced temperature increases have already led to ice melt, rising sea levels, and changes in precipitation (including more intense storms and more droughts). These global changes threaten food and water security, displace populations, stress ecosystems, and threaten lives and livelihoods [vi].

These threats to ecosystems and human populations are the stakes of the Copenhagen negotiations. This fact must remain clear and prominent in the midst of discussions over emissions targets and economic considerations. We cannot afford for Copenhagen to become another lost opportunity.

Works Cited

[i] World Resources Institute. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT).

[ii] Barrett, Scott and Robert Stavins. “Increasing Participation and Compliance in International Climate Change Agreements.” International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics. 3: 349-376, 2003.

[iii] NOAA. Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa. June 2009.

[vi] MacCracken, M. C., 2008: Prospects for Future Climate Change and the Reasons for Early Action, Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 58, 735-786. p. 735. PDF

SUMMER 2009 Climate Alert

The Copenhagen Challenge: Prospects for Successful Climate Negotiations [ PDF ]

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