ABSTRACTS - CLIMATE CHANGE AND EUROPE

Europe-Wide StudiesCountry-Level Studies

Bulgaria

Alexandrov, Vesselin. 1999. "Vulnerability and adaptation of agronomic systems in Bulgaria," Climate Research, Vol. 12, No. 2-3, pp. 161-173.
ABSTRACT: Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of major agricultural crops under climate change were carried out in Bulgaria through the US Country Studies Program. Several climate change scenarios using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were created. Annual temperatures in the country are projected to rise between 2.9 (HCGS model) and 5.8°C (UK89 model) under effective doubling of CO2. Precipitation is expected to increase during the winter and to decrease during the warm half of the year. Under equilibrium 2 x CO2, the GCM climate change scenarios project an increase in the agroclimatic potential; however, warming would cause decreases in grain yield of winter wheat Triticum aestivum L. and especially maize Zea mays L. Simulated adaptation measures--such as zoning of crop production in agricultural land areas with elevation below 1000 m, changing planting dates, altering varieties, changing optimum value and dates of fertilizer application, and irrigation--were considered as potential responses that may modify any effects of climate change on crop production in Bulgaria. An action plan in Bulgarian agriculture under climate change was developed in cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture, Forest and Agrarian Reform. Major points of the plan are a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions (reducing methane emissions produced by biological fermentation in stock breeding and rice cultivation; decreasing methane emissions by effective utilization of manure; improving fertilization using mineral fertilizers; decreasing the carbon emissions containing gasses; and retaining soil carbon) and some adaptation measures.

Alexandrov, Vesselin A. 1997. "Vulnerability of Agronomic Systems in Bulgaria," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 135-149.
ABSTRACT: In recent years the problem of climate and its variations under the influence of natural processes and factors of anthropogenetic origin has come to the forefront of scientific and practical problems on a world-wide scale. Climate change vulnerability assessments of agronomic systems in Bulgaria have been initiated. In this paper preliminary results of this study are presented. Different climate change scenarios were defined. Global circulation model (GCM) scenarios and incremental scenarios for Bulgaria were created and applied. The influence of climate change on potential crop growing season above a base of 5° and 10 °C in Bulgaria was investigated. Increases in temperature can be expected to lengthen the potential growing season, resulting in a shift of thermal limits of agriculture in Bulgaria. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 2.1 was used to assess the influence of climate change on grain yield of maize and winter wheat. Maize and winter wheat yields decreased with increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.

Czech Republic

Kalvová, Jaroslava and Ivana Nemešová. 1997. "Projections of Climate Change for the Czech Republic," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 41-64.
ABSTRACT: The paper deals with a selection of the climatological baseline, GCM validity and construction of the climate change scenarios for an impact assessment in the Czech territory. The period of 1961-1990 has been selected as the climatological baseline. The corresponding database includes more than 50 monthly mean temperature and precipitation series, and 16 time series of daily meteorological data that contain also the solar radiation data. The 1× CO2 outputs produced by four GCMs, provided by the CSMT (GISS, GFD30, GFD01, and CCCM), were compared with observed temperature and precipitation conditions in western and central Europe with a particular attention devoted to the Czech territory. The GCM ability to simulate annual cycles of temperature, precipitation and radiation was thoroughly examined. The GISS and CCCM were selected as a basis for constructing climate change scenarios as they simulated reasonably the observed patterns. According to the GISS variant, 2× CO2 climate assumes a higher winter and lower summer warming, and an increase in annual precipitation amounts. A dangerous combination of the summer temperature increase and declining precipitation amounts is a specific feature of the CCCM scenario. An incremental scenario for temperature and precipitation is based on the combination of prescribed changes in both annual means and annual courses.

Dvorak, Vaclav, Josef Hladny, and Ladislav Kasparek. 1997. "Climate Change Hydrology and Water Resources Impact and Adaptation for Selection River Basins in the Czech Republic," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 93-106.
ABSTRACT: The Czech Republic has a northern hemisphere Atlantic-continental type of moderate climate. Mean annual temperature ranges between 1.0 and 9.4 °C (between 8.8 and 18.5 °C in summer and between -6.8 and 0.2 °C in winter). Annual precipitation ranges between 450 mm in dry regions and 1300 mm in mountainous regions of the country. With its 2000 m3 per capita fresh water availability, the Czech Republic is slightly below average. Occasional water shortages do not usually result from general unavailability of water resources but rather from time or space variability of water supply/demand and high degree of water resources exploitation. To study potential impacts of climate change on hydrological system and water resources, four river basins have been selected in the territory of the Czech Republic: the Elbe River at Decin (50761.7 km2), the Zelivka River at Soutice (1188.6 km2), the Upa River at Ceska Skalice (460.7 km2) and the Metuje River at Marsov n. M. (93.9 km2). To simulate potential changes in runoff, three hydrological models have been applied using incremental and GCM (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) scenarios: the BILAN water balance model, the SACRAMENTO (SAC-SMA) conceptual model and the CLIRUN water balance model. The paper reviews methods applied in the study, results of the assessments and concludes with suggestions for possible general adaptation policy options where the preference is for nonstructural measures such as water conservation, efficient water demand management and protection of water resources.

Estonia

Nilson, Artur, Andres Kiviste, Henn Korjus, Saadi Mihkelson, Ivar Etverk, and Tõnu Oja. 1999. "Impact of recent and future climate change on Estonian forestry and adaptation tools," Climate Research, Vol. 12, No. 2-3, pp. 205-214.
ABSTRACT: The possible impact of recent and predicted future climate change on forestry in Estonia was studied. The quickening forest growth, about 15% in the last 4 decades, was verified by statistical analysis of the growth of over 50000 stands, and quickening forest growth was predicted for the next century by the RipFor model. The risk of forest damage and the uncertainty of forest growth predictions have been increasing and will continue to do so. The genome diversity of the dominant tree species growing in Estonia is sufficient for adaptation to the changing climate conditions. Computer-aided decision support systems built into the forest management information system can improve forest management planning.

Jaagus, Jaak. 1997. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Snow Cover Pattern in Estonia," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 65-77.
ABSTRACT: The paper deals with problems of temporal and spatial variability of snow cover duration, of correlation between snow cover and winter mean air temperature patterns and of the impact of climate change on the snow cover pattern in Estonia. Snow cover fields are presented in form of IDRISI raster images. Snow cover duration measured at ca 100 stations and observation points have been interpolated into raster cells. On the base of time series of raster images, a map of mean territorial distribution of snow cover duration is calculated. Estonia is characterized by a great spatial variability of snow cover mostly caused by the influence of the Baltic Sea. General regularities of snow cover pattern are determined. A 104-year time series of spatial mean values of snow cover duration is composed and analyzed. A decreasing trend and periodical fluctuations have detected. Standardized principal component analysis is used for the time series of IDRISI raster images. It enables to study the influence of different factors on the formation of snow cover fields and territorial extent of coherent fluctuations. Correlation between snow cover duration and winter mean air temperature fields is analyzed. A spatial regression model is created for estimation of the influence of climate change on snow cover pattern in Estonia. Using incremental climate change scenarios (2 °C, 4 °C and 6 °C of warming in winter) mean decrease of snow cover duration in different regions in Estonia is calculated. According to results of model calculation, the highest decrease of snow cover duration will be take place on islands and in the coastal region of West Estonia. A permanent snow cover may not form at all. In the areas with maximum snow cover duration in North-East and South-East Estonia, that decrease should be much lower.

Kont, Are, Urve Ratas, and Elle Puurmann. 1997. "Sea-Level Rise Impact on Coastal Areas of Estonia," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 175-184.
ABSTRACT: Due to long coastline (3,794 km in total) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems (both, marine and terrestrial) containing rare plant communities often rich in species, but also suitable breeding places for birds will be in danger. Most sandy beaches high in recreative value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Four case study areas characterizing all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Preliminary results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0 m sea-level rise by 2075 for two case study areas - Hiiumaa, West-Estonian Archipelago and Pärnu-Ikla, south-western coast of the mainland - are presented in this paper.

Finland

Heli Peltola, Seppo Kellomäki, and Hannu Väisänen. 1999. "Model Computations of the Impact of Climatic Change on the Windthrow Risk of Trees," Climatic Change, Vol. 41, No. 1, January, pp. 17-36. ABSTRACT: The more humid, warmer weather pattern predicted for the future is expected to increase the windthrow risk of trees through reduced tree anchorage due to a decrease in soil freezing between late autumn and early spring, i.e during the most windy months of the year. In this context, the present study aimed at calculating how a potential increase of up to 4°C in mean annual temperature might modify the duration of soil frost and the depth of frozen soil in forests and consequently increase the risk of windthrow. The risk was evaluated by combining the simulated critical windspeeds needed to uproot Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) under unfrozen soil conditions with the possible change in the frequency of these winds during the unfrozen period. The evaluation of the impacts of elevated temperature on the frequency of these winds at times of unfrozen and frozen soil conditions was based on monthly wind speed statistics for the years 1961-1990 (Meteorological Yearbooks of Finland, 1961-1990). Frost simulations in a Scots pine stand growing on a moraine sandy soil (height 20 m, stand density 800 stems ha-1) showed that the duration of soil frost will decrease from 4-5 months to 2-3 months per year in southern Finland and from 5-6 months to 4-5 months in northern Finland given a temperature elevation of 4°C. In addition, it could decrease substantially more in the deeper soil layers (40-60 cm) than near the surface (0-20 cm), particularly in southern Finland. Consequently, tree anchorage may lose much of the additional support gained at present from the frozen soil in winter, making Scots pines more liable to windthrow during winter and spring storms. Critical wind-speed simulations showed mean winds of 11-15 m s-1 to be enough to uproot Scots pines under unfrozen soil conditions, i.e. especially slender trees with a high height to breast height diameter ratio (taper of 1:120 and 1:100). In the future, as many as 80% of these mean winds of 11-15 m s-1 would occur during months when the soil is unfrozen in southern Finland, whereas the corresponding proportion at present is about 55%. In northern Finland, the percentage is 40% today and is expected to be 50% in the future. Thus, as the strongest winds usually occur between late autumn and early spring, climate change could increase the loss of standing timber through windthrow, especially in southern Finland.

Greece

Mimikou, M. A., S. P. Kanellopouloua, and E. A. Baltas. 1999. "Human implication of changes in the hydrological regime due to climate change in Northern Greece," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 9, No. 2, July, pp. 139-156.
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the impacts of climate change on various forms of water resources and on some critical water management issues. The study area is the Aliakmon river basin including three subbasins of hydrological interest located in northern Greece. A monthly conceptual water balance model was calibrated for each subbasin separately, using historical hydrometeorological data. This model was applied to estimate runoff values at the outlet of each subbasin under different climate change scenarios. Two equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) referring to years 2020, 2050 and 2100 and one transient scenario (UKTR) referring to years 2032 and 2080 were implied. It was found that reduction of the mean annual runoff and mean winter runoff values, as well as serious reduction of the summer runoff values would occur in all cases and basins. However, the runoff values for November, December and January were increased, whereas the spring runoff values were decreased, leading to a shifting of the wet period towards December and severe prolongation of the dry period. Moreover, the results indicate that all subbasins exhibit almost the same behavior under the different climate change scenarios, while the equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) seem to give more reasonable and consistent results than the transient scenario (UKTR). Finally, the negative effects of the climatically induced changes on the hydroelectric production and the water use for agricultural purposes in the study basin were assessed.

Kapetanaki, G., and C. Rosenzweig. 1997. "Impact of climate change on maize yield in central and northern Greece: A simulation study with CERES-Maize," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 1, pp. 251-271.
ABSTRACT: The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CRES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed

Netherlands

Dorland, C., R. S. J. Tol, and J. P. Palutikof. 1999. "Vulnerability of the Netherlands and Northwest Europe to Storm Damage under Climate Change," Climatic Change, Vol. 43, No. 3, November, pp. 513-535.
ABSTRACT: Storms occasionally bring havoc to Northwest Europe. At present, a single storm may cause damage of up to 7 billion U.S.$, of which a substantial part is insured. One scenario of climate change indicates that storm intensity in Northwest Europe could increase by 1-9% because of the doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. A geographic-explicit, statistical model, based on recent storms and storm damage data for the Netherlands, shows that an increase of 2% in wind intensity by the year 2015 could lead to a 50% increase in storm damage to houses and businesses. Only 20% of the increase is due to population and economic growth. A 6% increase could even triple the damage. A simpler model - based on national average data and combined with a stochastic storm generator - shows that the average annual damage could increase by 80% with a 2% increase in wind intensity. A 6% wind intensity increase could lead to an average annual damage increase of 500%. The damage in Northwest Europe is about a factor 6 higher than the damage in the Netherlands. Little potential seems to exist for reducing the vulnerability to storms in the Netherlands. More attention should be given to planning at the government level for disaster relief and to the development of coping strategies.

Poland

Demidowicz, G., T. Deputat, T. Górski, S. Krasowicz, and J. Kus. 2000. "Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes," Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 61, No. 1, March, pp. 133-144.
ABSTRACT: This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.

Zeidler, Ryszard B. 1997. "Climate Change Vulnerability and Response Strategies for the Coastal Zone of Poland," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 151-173.
ABSTRACT: Four accelerated sea level rise scenarios, 30 and 100 cm by the year 2100, and 10 and 30 cm by the year 2030, have been assumed as boundary conditions (along with some wind climate changes) for the entire Polish coast, under two recent programmes completed in 1992 and 1995. Three adaptation strategies, i.e., retreat, limited protection and full protection have been adopted and compared in physical and socio-economic terms. Over 2,200 km2 and 230,000 people are found vulnerable in the most severe case of 100-cm rise by 2100. The total cost of land at loss in that case is estimated at nearly 30 USD billion (plus some 18 USD billion at risk of flooding), while the cost of full protection reaches 6 USD billion. Particular features of vulnerability and adaptation schemes have been examined as well, including specific sites and the effects of not only sea level rise but also other climate change factors, and interactions with other climate change studies in Poland. Planning of coastal zone management facing climate change can be facilitated by the use of a GIS-supported coastal information and analysis system. An example of the application of such a system for a selected Polish coastal site is shown to illustrate the most recent smaller-scale research activities undertaken in the wake of the overall assessment of the vulnerability to climate change for the entire Polish coastal zone.

Romania

Cuculeanu, Vasile, Adriana Marica, and Catalin Simota. 1999. "Climate change impact on agricultural crops and adaptation options in Romania," Climate Research, Vol. 12, No. 2-3, pp.153-160.
ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to assess the potential effects of climate change on development, grain yield, and water balance for the main agricultural crops at 5 typical sites located in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania. In addition, the paper evaluates possible adaptation measures of crop management to future climate changes. The vulnerability assessments focused on winter wheat and maize crops due to the particular importance of these crops in the cultivated areas and the difference in the genetic type of these crops reflected in their distinct physiological responses to CO2 concentration level (winter wheat is a C3 crop, while maize is a C4 crop). Outputs from 2 equilibrium 2 x CO2 general circulation models were used to develop climate change scenarios. CERES simulation models, linked with a seasonal analysis program included in the dedicated software DSSAT v3.0, were run for 30 yr with baseline climate and climate change scenarios. The results of crop simulations under climate change scenarios indicated that winter wheat benefits from the interaction of double CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures, while irrigated maize in southern Romania shows negative responses to climate change. The adverse impact of climate change on the maize crop can be lessened by using a longer maturing hybrid, sowing in the last week of April, applying a plant density of 5 plants m-2, and increasing fertilization levels.

Russian Federation

Stocks, B. J., M. A. Fosberg, T. J. Lynham, L. Mearns, B. M. Wotton et al. 1998. "Climate Change and Forest Fire Potential in Russian and Canadian Boreal Forests," Climatic Change, Vol. 38, No. 1, January, pp. 1-13.
ABSTRACT: In this study outputs from four current General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to project forest fire danger levels in Canada and Russia under a warmer climate. Temperature and precipitation anomalies between 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 runs were combined with baseline observed weather data for both countries for the 1980-1989 period. Forecast seasonal fire weather severity was similar for the four GCMs, indicating large increases in the areal extent of extreme fire danger in both countries under a 2 × CO2 climate scenario. A monthly analysis, using the Canadian GCM, showed an earlier start to the fire season, and significant increases in the area experiencing high to extreme fire danger in both Canada and Russia, particularly during June and July. Climate change as forecast has serious implications for forest fire management in both countries. More severe fire weather, coupled with continued economic constraints and downsizing, mean more fire activity in the future is a virtual certainty. The likely response will be a restructuring of protection priorities to support more intensive protection of smaller, high-value areas, and a return to natural fire regimes over larger areas of both Canada and Russia, with resultant significant impacts on the carbon budget.

Lelyakin, Alexander L., Alexey O. Kokorin and Igor M. Nazarov. 1997. "Vulnerability of Russian Forests to Climate Changes: Model Estimation of CO2 Fluxes," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 123-133.
ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is an estimation of the CO2 sequestration by Russian forests, caused by previous and future climate changes. The method of estimation is simulation of carbon budget via mathematical model. This model has a number of specific features: description of age distribution of forests, number of carbon reservoirs, modeling of cuttings and fires. Current net-sink of CO2 is estimated as 160 MtC/yr. This sink will grow up to 200-240 Mt/yr in 2010. Main uncertainty of results are caused by variation in parameters of forest reaction to climate changes.

Krankina, O. N., R. K. Dixon, A. P. Kirilenko, K. I. Kobak. 1997. "Global Climate Change Adaptation: Examples from Russian Boreal Forest," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 197-215.
ABSTRACT: The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Large shifts in the distribution (up to 19% area reduction) and productivity of boreal forests are implied by scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Uncertainty regarding the potential distribution and productivity of future boreal forests complicates the development of adaptation strategies for forest establishment, management, harvesting and wood processing. Although a low potential exists for rapid natural adaptation of long-lived, complex boreal forests, recent analyses suggest Russian forest management and utilization strategies should be field tested to assess their potential to assist boreal forests in adaptation to a changing global environment. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented, including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaptation measures for them; (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation.

Sirotenko, Oleg D., Helena V. Abashina, Vera N. Pavlova. 1997. "Sensitivity of the Russian Agriculture to Changes in Climate, CO2 and Tropospheric Ozone Concentrations and Soil Fertility," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 217-232.
ABSTRACT: Russian agriculture sensitivity to changes in climate, soil and atmosphere chemistry were analyzed. Calculated data are presented on crop productivity of grain crops and grasses (C3) under arid and humid scenarios of climate taking account of one-, two-, three and four-factor natural environment impacts. All four factors under studies (climatic parameters, CO2 and tropospheric ozone concentrations, soil degradation extent) greatly impact agriculture productivity. The effect of interaction between all considered factors on agroecosystem productivity is studied. It is established that a simple additive scheme for explaining the complex effect of some factors can be much violated. In this case, not only variations in the mean crop yield levels but also variations in the degree of crop stability have been assessed in some regions, that may be more important for determining the social-economic consequences. It turned out that the recurrence of critically very low yields in steppe regions may increase two fold as a result of global warming.

Spain

Iglesias, Ana, Cynthia Rosenzweigb and David Pereira. 2000. "Agricultural impacts of climate change in Spain: developing tools for a spatial analysis," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 10, No. 1, April 2000, p. 69-80.
ABSTRACT: CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model, is specified and validated for seven sites in the major wheat-growing regions of Spain. Variables explaining a significant proportion of simulated yield variance are crop water (sum of precipitation and irrigation) and temperature during the growing season. A multiple linear regression model is developed to represent simulated yield response to these variables. Seven agro-climatic regions are defined based on K-mean cluster analysis of temperature and precipitation data from 329 meteorological stations and provincial crop yield data. The yield functions derived from the validated crop model were then used with the gridded agro-climatic database to conduct a spatial analysis of climate change impacts on national wheat production. Climate change scenarios with and without sulfate aerosols developed from the Hadley Centre (HCGG and HCGS) and Canadian Climate Centre (CCGG and CCGC) are tested.

Piñol, Josep, Jaume Terradas and Francisco Lloret. "Climate Warming, Wildfire Hazard, and Wildfire Occurrence in Coastal Eastern Spain," Climatic Change, Vol. 38, No. 3, March, pp. 345-357.
ABSTRACT: A climatic series (1941 to 1994) from a Mediterranean locality of NE Spain was used to calculate two wildfire hazard indices based on daily meteorological data. Both fire hazard indices increased over this period, as a consequence of increasing mean daily maximum temperature and decreasing minimum daily relative humidity. These trends were observed in both mean values of the indices and in the number of very high risk days. Annual data on the number of wildfires and burned area also show an increase from 1968 to 1994, and are significantly correlated with both fire hazard indices. Although other non-meteorological causes (e.g., human activities, fuel accumulation) have likely contributed to the observed increase of wildfires, an effect of climatic warming on wildfire occurrence is supported by this relationship.

Turkey

Komuscu, Ali Umran, Ayhan Erkan, and Sukriye Oz. 1998. "Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Moisture Availability in the Southeast Anatolia Development Project Region (GAP): An Analysis from an Agricultural Drought Perspective," Climatic Change, Vol. 40, No. 3-4, December, pp. 519-545.
ABSTRACT: This paper presents probable effects of climate change on soil moisture availability in the Southeast Anatolia Development Project (GAP) region of Turkey. A series of hypothetical climate change scenarios and GCM-generated IPCC Business-as-Usual scenario estimates of temperature and precipitation changes were used to examine implications of climate change for seasonal changes in actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, and soil moisture surplus in 13 subregions of the GAP. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of enhancement in summer soil moisture deficit that are consistent across the region in all scenarios. Least effect of the projected warming on the soil moisture deficit enhancement is observed with the IPCC estimates. The projected temperature changes would be responsible for a great portion of the enhancement in summer deficits in the GAP region. The increase in precipitation had less effect on depletion rate of soil moisture when the temperatures increase. Particularly southern and southeastern parts of the region will suffer severe moisture shortages during summer. Winter surplus decreased in scenarios with increased temperature and decreased precipitation in most cases. Even when precipitation was not changed, total annual surplus decreased by 4 percent to 43 percent for a 2°C warming and by 8 percent to 91 percent for a 4°C warming. These hydrologic results may have significant implications for water availability in the GAP as the present project evaluations lack climate change analysis. Adaptation strategies - such as changes in crop varieties, applying more advanced dry farming methods, improved water management, developing more efficient irrigation systems, and changes in planting - will be important in limiting adverse effects and taking advantage of beneficial changes in climate.

United Kingdom

Ghaffari, A., H. F. Cook, and H. C. Lee. 2002. "Climate Change and Winter Wheat Management: A Modelling Scenario for South-Eastern England," Climatic Change, Vol. 55, No. 4, December, pp. 509-533.
ABSTRACT: Crop models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The dynamic crop-growth model, CERES-Wheat is used to examine crop management responses, including yield, under six climate change scenarios for the years 2025 and 2050 on the Estate of Imperial College at Wye, Kent, U.K. Sensitivity analysis shows a dry matter yield decrease in response to increases in temperature alone. CERES-Wheat was then constrained to assess the crop performance under water-limited production scenarios with different soils, and the results show that crop grain yield actually increases, largely due to CO2 fertilisation leading to increased rates of photosynthesis. Different management practices (planting dates and nitrogen application) were applied to find the best adaptation strategies. In general, `early' sowing (10th September) had the highest simulated yield, and `late' sowing (10th November) the lowest. For the soils tested, the highest and sustained crop production was obtained from Hamble soils (silt loam) compared with either the Fyfield (sandy) or Denchworth (clay). Adding nitrogen and other fertilisers would likely be necessary to take full advantage of the CO2 fertilisation effect and to compensate, in some cases, for yield losses caused by climate change where water shortage becomes serious.

Naden, P. S. and C. D. Watts. 2001. "Estimating Climate-Induced Change in Soil Moisture at the Landscape Scale: An Application to Five Areas of Ecological Interest in the U.K.," Climatic Change, Vol. 49, No. 4, June, pp. 411-440.
ABSTRACT: This paper presents an indication of the possible effects of climate change on monthly mean soil moisture at a fine spatial resolution (50 m) over the scale of a landscape (100-250 km2). Soil moisture is modelled using daily time series of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration to drive a simple hydrological model operating on individual hillslopes and explicitly including, on a conceptual level, the lateral movement of water. Climate change is represented by the UKTR scenario and model results are provided at two time slices (the years 2030-2040 and 2060-2070) for five areas of ecological interest, forming a north-south transect across the U.K. The results are given in terms of the distribution of the monthly mean soil moisture change by soil type. The spread of values reflects the effect of the topographic control on the lateral movement of water. The results show a small increase in wetness at the Cairngorm site, a very slight decrease in summer soil moisture at the Moor House site and a very marked fall in soil moisture for the three more southerly sites. The importance of soil type in determining the availability of water to plants, the changing areal extent above specified soil moisture thresholds, and the implications for ecological change and conservation are discussed.

Reynard, N. S., C. Prudhomme, and S. M. Crooks. 2001. "The Flood Characteristics of Large U.K. Rivers: Potential Effects of Changing Climate and Land Use," Climatic Change, Vol. 48, No. 2-3, February, pp. 343-359.
ABSTRACT: A continuous flow simulation model (CLASSIC) has been used to assess the potential impact of climate and land use changes on the flood regimes of large U.K. catchments. Climate change scenarios, based on the HadCM2 experiments from the Hadley Centre, are applied to the Severn and Thames rivers. The analysis shows that, for the 2050s, the climate change scenarios result in an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of flooding events in these rivers. The various ways of applying the rainfall scenario can have a significant effect on these general conclusions, although generally do not affect either the direction or consistency of the changes. While `best guess' land use changes show little impact on flood response, a 50% increase in forest cover could counter-act the impact of climate change. As would be expected, a large change in the urban cover of the catchments does have a large effect on the flood regimes, increasing both the frequency and magnitude of floods significantly beyond the changes due to climate alone. Further research is required into the potential impacts of seasonal changes in the daily rainfall and potential evaporation regimes, land use changes and the interaction between the two.

Arnell, Nigel W. 1998. "Climate Change and Water Resources in Britain," Climatic Change, Vol. 39, No. 1, May, pp. 83-110.
ABSTRACT: This paper explores the potential implications of climate change for the use and management of water resources in Britain. It is based on a review of simulations of changes in river flows, groundwater recharge and river water quality. These simulations imply, under feasible climate change scenarios, that annual, winter and summer runoff will decrease in southern Britain, groundwater recharge will be reduced and that water quality - as characterised by nitrate concentrations and dissolved oxygen contents - will deteriorate. In northern Britain, river flows are likely to increase throughout the year, particularly in winter. Climate change may lead to increased demands for water, over and above that increase which is forecast for non-climatic reasons, primarily due to increased use for garden watering. These increased pressures on the water resource base will impact not only upon the reliability of water supplies, but also upon navigation, aquatic ecosystems, recreation and power generation, and will have implications for water quality management. Flood risk is likely to increase, implying a reduction in standards of flood protection. The paper discusses adaptation options.

McMaster, H. J. 1999. "The Potential Impact of Global Warming on Hail Losses to Winter Cereal Crops in New South Wales," Climatic Change, Vol. 43, No. 2, October, pp. 455-476.
ABSTRACT: This study was undertaken to determine the impact of potential global warming on the magnitude of hail losses to winter cereal crops within two areas situated on the western slopes of New South Wales, Australia. A model relating historical crop hail losses to climatic variables was developed for each area. These models included seasonal measures of vertical instability, low-level moisture and the height of the freezing level. In both areas, windshear was not found to be an important factor influencing seasonal crop hail losses. The two crop hail loss models were then used in conjunction with upper-air climatic data from three single mixed-layer global climate models (GCMs). Each GCM was run for 1 × CO2 conditions and for 2 × CO2 conditions. The enhanced greenhouse effect on climatic variables was taken to be the difference between their values for these two runs. Changes to climatic variables were then translated directly into changes in the percentage value of the winter cereal crop lost due to hail. In both areas, the three GCMs agreed concerning the direction of change in each of the variables used in the crop hail loss model. GCM simulations of the greenhouse effect resulted in a decline in winter cereal crop hail losses, with the exception of one GCM simulation at one location where losses increased slightly. None of the changes due to the enhanced greenhouse effect, however, were significant owing to a large observed seasonal variability of crop hail losses. Also, the simulated seasonal variability of crop hail losses did not change significantly due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. These results depended on two important assumptions. Firstly, it was assumed that the dominant relationships between climatic variables and crop hail losses in the past would remain the same in a future climate. Secondly, it was assumed that the single mixed-layer GCMs used in the study were correctly predicting climate change under enhanced greenhouse conditions.