Development of Non-Carbon Energy Power Projects in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia

By Mariam Ubilava
Muskie Fellow and Masters Candidate, Evergreen State University

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Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia constitute the bulk of the former Soviet Union in population, energy consumption and energy generation. They differ in several respects, however, perhaps the largest being Ukraine’s position as an energy importer and the growing position of both Russia and Kazakhstan as energy exporters due to their large oil and gas resources. Energy policy has already been a point of deep contention between Russia and Ukraine with Russia raising oil and gas prices to what it contended were world market levels and Ukraine viewing this Russian action as an economic retaliation for its growing closeness to the European Union.

All three countries are participants in the Kyoto Protocol and subject to its emission limits within the First Budget Period (2008-2012). All three nations have current emissions well below the 1990 Kyoto Protocol baseline. This is due to a number of factors including the closing of a large number of inefficient and heavily energy consuming industrial plants, reduction of transmission losses, and the introduction of efficiency measures in the consumer sector. The recovery of the economies in all three nations as they have each implemented a transition to more market–based economies has seen a gradual rise in energy use and greenhouse emissions. Still it seems unlikely that any of these nations will exceed its baseline levels for the first Kyoto Budget Period. This means that each is likely to have some emission credits to sell, although a smaller amount than seemed likely a short while ago before the recovery of these economies.

The Kyoto Protocol does, however, provide Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia an incentive to develop non-carbon energy sources. This will increase the availability of emission credits that they can sell during the First Kyoto Budget Period and better position them for the possibility that more stringent limits may apply in future years. Despite the tragedy at Chernobyl all three nations seem open to greater use of nuclear power as a means of meeting Kyoto targets. In addition, greater efficiency and development of a range of renewable energy technologies seems a part of each country’s evolving strategy to limit its future greenhouse emissions.

Production of Electricity from Nuclear Power in Ukraine

Production of electricity in Ukraine declined from 296.3 TWh to 181.4 TWh from 1990 to 2004.  Meanwhile, production of electricity from nuclear power (ENP) in Ukraine has been increasing. During the last 14 years, from 1990 to 2004, ENP production increased by 10.6 TWh. At the same time, production of electricity from thermal plants decreased from 201.7 TWh to 73.3 TWh (Figure 1.), which was due to the country’s economic collapse.

Figure 1. Click on image to see enlargement.

Source: http://www.uic.com.au/nip63.htm

Currently 15 nuclear power units are operating in Ukraine. ENP accounts for 48% of Ukraine’s total electrical generation. The reactors are Russian VVER types, 440 Mwe V-312, 1000 Mwe V-312 and V-320 models.

Nuclear Power Strategy in Ukraine

Ukraine is considering building 11 new reactors by 2030. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lent 215 million dollars to Ukraine for reconstruction and completion of K2-R4 reactors, developing western nuclear safety standards and electricity market reform.

Ukraine produces almost 800 tones of uranium per year, which is one third of the country’s needs. Other kinds of nuclear fuel cycle services are provided by Russia. Currently, Ukraine is constructing dry storage facilities.

Wind energy in Ukraine

In July 2001, the parliament of Ukraine passed a bill to promote the development of alternative energy sources, mainly solar and geothermal.By 2020 Ukraine is planning to establish a significant amount of wind power generation. Currently there are eight operating wind power plants in Ukraine, all located at the southern seashore. Production of electricity reaches 12.5 megawatts per year. According to Roman Woronowycz’s article, “Non-traditional sources of energy may be key to Ukraine's future”, citing Viktor Shula, director of the Institute of Energy Engineering, wind plants could produce 50 % of Ukraine’s electricity by 2050.

Development of Cleaner Energy in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has reduced its emission of GHGs from 1990. The minimum emission of gases was observed in 2000, less than half the level in 1990. Since 2001 emission levels of GHGs have been rising (Table 1).

Table 1. Emission of GHG in Kazakhstan in million tonnes

Year	1990	1992	1994	1999	2000	2001	2002
Total emission of GHGs, mln. t	328.1	359.8	246.3	140.1	163.0	179.1	186.9

Source: http://www.dan.kz/climate/engl/invent2002.htm

As the country’s industry and mining sector expand, emission levels are likely to rise. The energy sector is the biggest GHG emission source in Kazakhstan. In 2004 approximately 90% of electricity was generated from coal, gas and oil, and 10% from hydropower plants. Electric power capacity in Kazakhstan is 18 331 MW. Almost 88% of electricity is produced by thermoelectric power stations and the other 12% from the hydroelectric power stations. In 2004 consumption of electricity was 64.7 billion kW-hr. Consumption is increasing every year. According to forecasts, consumption of electricity in Kazakhstan will reach 94.1 billion kW-hr by 2015. Currently, production of electric power comes from 37 thermoelectric stations, operating on coal and 3 hydroelectric stations, and a nuclear power plant near Aktau. Presently, Kazakhstan is working out projects focusing on non-carbon energy development. Developing of solar energy plants and nuclear power are a major element in this strategy.

Hydropower in Kazakhstan

The southern and eastern part of the country possesses a good source of water resources. According to Kazakh experts, country could produce more electricity from the hydropower stations than it is producing now. Capacity of water resources gives a possibility of producing almost 170 000 GW-hr electricity per year. In Kazakhstan’s lower strategy plan, one of the main tasks is increasing production of electricity from the hydropower sector. By reactivating 450 abandoned small hydropower plants, the country could produce 6 billion kW-hr electricity.

Development of the Wind Energy Sector in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has decided to build wind power plants, which will help to reduce emissions of GHGs from the energy sector. GEF provided $2 million for a wind power plant project. Approximately 500 megawatts of energy will be produced by wind power by 2030 in Kazakhstan.

Significant reduction of GHG emission will be observed after a gas-turbine plant will go into force. Kazakhstan began installation of a 28.52 MW gas-turbine. This project is the first in CIS countries and is implemented by Japanese and Kazakhstan companies, Tohoku Electric Power and UralteploEnergy OJSC.

Nuclear power: an alternative source of energy in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has one nuclear power plant in Aktau, which had 350 MW fast-neutron reactor. In 1999 this power station was shut down. The State program on Nuclear Power Development is considering establishing of nuclear thermoelectric power plants in three parts of Kazakhstan: Almaty, Ust-Kamenogorsk and Semipalatinsk. Near the Lake Balkhash a 1,900 MW nuclear power station may be built. The last project will cost approximately $5 billion. Kazakhstan is planning to expand mining of uranium to 15, 000 t annually by 2010. In the last 5 years, from 2001 to 2004 production of uranium rose from 2000 tonnes to 3719 tonnes.

Last month Kazakhstan and Russia signed three 50:50 nuclear joint venture (JV) agreements for new nuclear reactors, uranium production and enrichment, with a total cost of $10 billion. These agreements provide for development and marketing of small and medium size reactors, expanding uranium exploration, mining and production.

Emission of GHGs in Russia

Emission of GHGs by Russia were about 17% of total world emissions in 1990. Russia’s emission level is 30% lower than it was in 1990. The collapse of the Soviet Union initially slowed Russia’s economic and industrial development. Emission levels are rising but haven’t reached their previous peak in Russia.

From 1990 to 1999, GHG emissions in Russia fell from 3046.56 to 1872.78, a drop of approximately 39% (Table 2). Since 1998 emission levels have risen and with growth of industry are likely to continue to rise.

Table 2. Total emission of GHG in Russia

Year	GHG total emissions (Tg CO2 equivalents)
1990	3 046.56
1991	2 810.53
1992	2 607.37
1993	2 388.72
1994	2 152.52
1995	2 061.74
1996	1 951.81
1997	1 910.79
1998	1 869.17
1999	1 872.78

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Nuclear Power in Russia

Electricity demand in Russia is going to rise by 3% per year. Production of nuclear electricity in Russia is going to rise. About 13% of totally produced electricity in the European part of Russia comes from nuclear power. Almost 148 billion kWh per year was provided by nuclear plants in Russia. Russia is planning to double production of electricity from nuclear power by 2020. Russia in 2004 produced 3200 tonnes of uranium. By 2020, as demand increases, Russia is planning to increase production of uranium to 7500 tonnes per year.

Development of Solar and Wind Energy Plants in Russia

Russia has great possibilities to develop wind energy plants. Utilization of wind energy infrastructure will conserve consumption of fuel, which will minimize emission of GHGs in Russia. According to Grigory Dimitrev, gross wind energy resources from economic regions of the European part of Russia are 29600 TWh/year (Table 3), while in Siberia and Far East this reaches 50400 TWh/year.

Table 3. Wind Energy in Russia

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Possibilities to increase production of energy from wind power plants on the far Eastern part of Russia, near the Kazakhstan border, along the Volga and Northern Caucasus steppes are high. By developing wind energy power plants in the country, 10% of total electricity demand might be covered by wind power plants by 2020.