Sectoral Studies
Agriculture
Weber, Marian and Grant Hauer. 2003.
"A Regional Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Canadian
Agriculture," Canadian Public Policy, Vol. 29, No.
2, June, pp. 163-179.
ABSTRACT: Climate change is expected to alter production
opportunities facing agricultural producers. Global studies
of climate change impacts on agriculture suggest positive
benefits for Canada. Results from Canadian studies tend
to be more pessimistic; however, most of these studies are
regionally specific and focus on the impacts on specific
crops, particularly grains and oilseeds. This paper examines
the impact of climate change on Canadian agricultural land
values. Changes in land values are used to impute expected
changes to agricultural GDP. We find that all provinces
benefit from climate change and that previous estimates
may be overly pessimistic.
Bryant, Christopher R., Barry Smit,
Michael Brklacich, et al. 2000. "Adaptation in Canadian
Agriculture to Climatic Variability and Change," Climatic
Change, Vol. 45, No. 1, April, pp. 181-201.
ABSTRACT: The effects of climatic variability and change
on Canadian agriculture have become an important research
field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize
this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful
proactive or reactive response to changes associated with
climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature
of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture
is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many
individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate,
because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving
them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many
regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change,
except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability.
Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate,
as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several
of these, notably institutional and political ones, have
tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic
variability and change, but may well increase the long term
vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the
technological and management adaptation measures available
to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to
climatic variability and to climate change.
Singh, Bhawan, Mustapha El Maayar,
Pierre André, Christopher R. Bryant, and Jean-Pierre
Thouez. 1998. "Impacts of a Ghg-Induced Climate Change
on Crop Yields: Effects of Acceleration in Maturation, Moisture
Stress and Optimal Temperature," Climatic Change, Vol.
38, No. 1, January, pp. 51-86. ABSTRACT: The present
study involves using the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) climate
change scenario to evaluate the impacts of a CO2-induced
climate change on agriculture in Québec and vicinity.
Climate change using the CCC General Circulation Model (GCM)
data are fed into a crop model (FAO) so as to gauge the
changes in agroclimatic factors such as growing season length
and growing degree days, and subsequently potential yield
changes for a variety of cereal (C3 and C4), leguminous,
oleaginous, vegetable and special crops, for twelve major
agricultural regions in southern Québec. Our results
show that depending upon the agricultural zone and crop
type, yields may increase (ex. corn and sorghum by 20%)
or decrease (ex. wheat and soybean by 20 to 30%). Also,
these crop yield changes appear to be related to acceleration
in maturation rates, mainly to change in moisture stress
and to shifts in optimal thermal growth conditions. These
possible shifts in agricultural production potentials would
solicit the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies.
Rosenzweig, C. 1985. "Potential
CO2-induced climate effects on North American wheat-producing
regions," Climatic Change, Vol. 7, pp. 367-389.
ABSTARCT: The environmental requirements for growth
of winter, spring, and fall-sown spring wheats in North
America are specified and compared to temperature results
from the control run of the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies general circulation model (GISS GCM) and observed
precipitation in order to generate a simulated map of current
wheat production regions. The simulation agrees substantially
with the actual map of wheat-growing regions in North America.
Results from a doubled CO2 run of the climate model are
then used to generate wheat regions under the new climatic
conditions. In the simulation, areas of production increase
in North America, particularly in Canada, due to increased
growing degree units (GDU). Although wheat classifications
may change, major wheat regions in the United States remain
the same under simulated doubled CO2 conditions. The wheat-growing
region of Mexico is identified as vulnerable due to high
temperature stress. Higher mean temperatures during wheat
growth, particularly during the reproductive stages, may
increase the need for earlier-maturing, more heat-tolerant
cultivars throughout North America. The soil moisture diagnostic
of the climate model is used to analyze potential water
availability in the major wheat region of the Southern Great
Plain.
Ecosystems and Species
Sorenson, Lisa G., Richard Goldberg,
Terry L. Root, and Michael G. Anderson. 1998. "Potential
Effects of Global Warming on Waterfowl Populations Breeding
in the Northern Great Plains," Climatic Change, Vol.
40, No. 2, October, pp. 343-369.
ABSTRACT: The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern
Great Plains is the most important breeding area for waterfowl
in North America. Historically, the size of breeding duck
populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring
wetland conditions. We show that one indicator of climate
conditions, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is
strongly correlated with annual counts (from 1955 to 1996)
of both May ponds (R2 = 0.72, p < 0.0001) and breeding
duck populations (R2 = 0.69, p < 0.0001) in the Northcentral
U.S., suggesting the utility of PDSI as an index for climatic
factors important to wetlands and ducks. We then use this
relationship to project future pond and duck numbers based
on PDSI values generated from sensitivity analyses and two
general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. We investigate
the sensitivity of PDSI to fixed changes in temperature
of 0°C, +1.5°C, +2.5°C, and +4.0°C in combination
with fixed changes in precipitation of -10%, +0%, +7%, and
+15%, changes spanning the range of typically-projected
values for this region from human-induced climatic change.
Most (11 of 12) increased temperature scenarios tested result
in increased drought (due to greater evapotranspiration
under warmer temperatures) and declining numbers of both
wetlands and ducks. Assuming a doubling of CO2 by 2060,
both the equilibrium and transient GCM scenarios we use
suggest a major increase in drought conditions. Under these
scenarios, Northcentral U.S. breeding duck populations would
fluctuate around means of 2.1 or 2.7 million ducks based
on the two GCMs, respectively, instead of the present long-term
mean of 5.0 million. May pond numbers would fluctuate around
means of 0.6 or 0.8 million ponds instead of the present
mean of 1.3 million. The results suggest that the ecologically
and economically important PPR could be significantly damaged
by climate changes typically projected. We make several
recommendations for policy and research to help mitigate
potential effects.
Mortsch, Linda D. 1998. "Assessing
the Impact of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Shoreline
Wetlands," Climatic Change, Vol. 40, No. 2, October,
pp. 391-416.
ABSTRACT: Great Lakes shoreline wetlands are adapted
to a variable water supply. They require the disturbance
of water level fluctuations to maintain their productivity.
However, the magnitude and rate of climate change could
alter the hydrology of the Great Lakes and affect wetland
ecosystems. Wetlands would have to adjust to a new pattern
of water level fluctuations; the timing, duration, and range
of these fluctuations are critical to the wetland ecosystem
response. Two "what if" scenarios: (1) an increased
frequency and duration of low water levels and (2) a changed
temporal distribution and amplitude of seasonal water levels
were developed to assess the sensitivity of shoreline wetlands
to climate change. Wetland functions and values such as
wildlife, waterfowl and fish habitat, water quality, areal
extent, and vegetation diversity are affected by these scenarios.
Key wetlands are at risk, particularly those that are impeded
from adapting to the new water level conditions by man-made
structures or geomorphic conditions. Wetland remediation,
protection and enhancement policies and programs must consider
climate change as an additional stressor of wetlands.
Stocks, B. J., M. A. Fosberg, T.
J. Lynham, L. Mearns, B. M. Wotton et al. 1998. "Climate
Change and Forest Fire Potential in Russian and Canadian
Boreal Forests," Climatic Change, Vol. 38, No. 1, January,
pp. 1-13.
ABSTRACT: In this study outputs from four current General
Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to project forest fire
danger levels in Canada and Russia under a warmer climate.
Temperature and precipitation anomalies between 1 ×
CO2 and 2 × CO2 runs were combined with baseline observed
weather data for both countries for the 1980-1989 period.
Forecast seasonal fire weather severity was similar for
the four GCMs, indicating large increases in the areal extent
of extreme fire danger in both countries under a 2 ×
CO2 climate scenario. A monthly analysis, using the Canadian
GCM, showed an earlier start to the fire season, and significant
increases in the area experiencing high to extreme fire
danger in both Canada and Russia, particularly during June
and July. Climate change as forecast has serious implications
for forest fire management in both countries. More severe
fire weather, coupled with continued economic constraints
and downsizing, mean more fire activity in the future is
a virtual certainty. The likely response will be a restructuring
of protection priorities to support more intensive protection
of smaller, high-value areas, and a return to natural fire
regimes over larger areas of both Canada and Russia, with
resultant significant impacts on the carbon budget.
Human Health
Water Resources
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