China Now Leading Greenhouse Gas Emitter

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As China Approaches United States in Total Greenhouse Emissions, Energy Greening Underway

By Nate Frey

China, as the world's most populous country, faces a unique set of challenges in planning for its future energy development. Though the country's per capita energy consumption in 2001 was just below a tenth of that of the US, China's economy has been growing at eight to ten percent per year, and is expected to continue to expand for the foreseeable future. This growth, accompanied by increasing affluence, will contribute to an expected doubling of energy demand by 2020.

China has two sharply divergent alternatives in meeting this future demand. The first is to follow the traditional development path, utilizing high levels of fossil fuels, damaging the local environment and contributing to global climate change. The second is to forge a new, more sustainable path focused on efficiency, renewable resources, and innovative technologies. While past development has largely fallen into the former category, recent initiatives show significant progress toward a less carbon-intensive energy system.

Dirty Historical Development

For much of the past fifty years, China showed little concern for the impacts of its development on the environment. This disregard stemmed, at least in part, from the philosophy of Mao Zedong, which demanded that man "conquer" the natural environment. That policy, which remained in effect until Mao's death in 1976, led to widespread environmental devastation from which the country still has not entirely recovered.

Even in the post-Mao era, much of China's development has been far from clean. The World Bank reports that twenty of the world's thirty most polluted cities are in China. Much of the pollution problem stems from the electricity sector, which relies on dirty coal plants for eighty percent of production, and plans to build several hundred new facilities in the coming years. Current coal plants are also responsible for more greenhouse gas output per unit of energy production than any other major type of plant. A recent IEA prediction stated that China's total carbon dioxide emissions will likely surpass those of the US within a year, although China's per capita emissions will still be much lower. Given the growing international consensus that climate change must be regulated, coupled with the potentially devastating impacts of climate change within China, coal-driven growth may appear unsustainable to Chinese decision-makers.

Trends in Decarbonization

Fortunately, China has begun to recognize the present and potential impacts of its previous mode of development. The country has taken a particularly aggressive stance on energy efficiency, setting a target of a twenty percent improvement in energy consumption per unit GDP between 2006 and 2010. Although China failed to meet its first intermediate target, it has nonetheless realized significant efficiency gains, and still claims it will be able to meet its 2010 goal. China spent about 6.5 billion dollars on renewable energy investment last year, among the highest totals of any country in the world.

China has also made important progress in the automobile industry, recently enacting emissions controls equivalent to the EU Euro-III standard, which are slightly stricter than current US standards. By 2010 China hopes to enact the even more stringent Euro-IV standards, which are some of the strictest currently in effect anywhere in the world.

There has been important progress at the provincial level in China as well. Jiangsu Province in eastern China has established itself as a leader in wind energy, hoping to install 1500 MW of capacity within five years. Guangdong Province in Southern China has set fixed prices for wind power to encourage its use, and Shanghai, the largest city in China, currently is seeking to expand its wind capacity from 25 MW to 300 MW by 2010. The small city of Rizhao in Shandong Province has pioneered a successful large-scale implementation of solar water heaters. Five other local governments throughout the country have partnered with the International Center for Sustainable Development on sustainable energy systems . Such local innovations may prove critical in improving and greening energy systems in a country as large as China.

Foreign governments and investors have shown a great deal of interest in helping China to meet these goals. The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory has funded biomass, wind and geothermal energy projects throughout China and has established a program to help US renewable energy companies market their products and services in the country. A recent cooperative effort between Germany and the Chinese province of Qinghai has brought clean solar power to 520 homes in rural areas. A consortium of Chinese companies and organizations even hosts an annual China Power and Alternative Energy Summit to encourage foreign companies to invest in renewable energy in China, now in its third year.

In a recent paper on this site, Mariam Ubilava showed that in spite of the havoc wreaked by the tragedy at Chernobyl, nuclear power is playing a large role in the strategies of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia to lower carbon emissions. The same seems to be true in China. Nuclear energy currently provides only a small proportion of China's electricity, with only nine plants on line as of May 2007. However, the Peoples Republic of China has announced an ambitious program of nuclear power development, seeking to bring about one new power plant on line each year. This would result in significant absolute growth in nuclear power in China, but given the huge anticipated increase in overall power generation, nuclear power would still only account for 4% of electricity generation by 2020. This contrasts with the roughly 20% share of electricity generation that nuclear power now has in both the United States and Taiwan.

Still by far the largest proportion of non carbon-based energy in China currently comes from hydropower, and this situation seems likely to persist for at least the next decade. Although wind, solar and geothermal may grow significantly, the bulk of projected growth in the renewable energy sector will come from hydropower. The net carbon emission effects may be significantly less than generating equivalent electricity from coal, but the 18.2 gigawatt Three Gorges project slated to be completed by 2009 will produce significant environmental disruption, inundating villages and forest lands. Though widespread protests by Chinese and international environmental groups over the Three Gorges project have failed to sidetrack it, it seems possible that Chinese decision makers may seek more public input in future large-scale hydropower projects.

The Way Forward

China now finds itself at a crossroads. Its rapid industrialization and growth in living standards are fueling a huge need for more usable energy. At the same time, many of its major cities and many rural areas are choking on air pollution associated especially with coal burning. This air pollution has been blamed for as many as 400,000 premature deaths each year, has attracted considerable adverse international attention, and has inflicted large health care costs. Although these health impacts of air pollution are likely the dominant consideration in China's drive to diversify its energy sector past its abundant coal resources, Chinese scientists have also warned that China could be gravely affected by climate change. China's leaders are quite aware that world attention will be focused on China during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, and they are going to great lengths to make this a Green Olympics. Success in this effort could help catalyze much more comprehensive energy and environmental innovations in the country. China's size, substantial resources, and burgeoning economy would then put it in a position to establish itself as a green energy leader in the developing world.

Further Reading:

• Capacity Building for the Rapid Commercialization of Renewable Energy in China
• The Renewable Energy Law of the People's Republic of China
• The China Sustainable Energy Program
• Chinese Climate Change Network