China Faces Many Complexities Besides
Heavy Reliance on Coal
As almost everyone in the atmospheric community knows, the principal
energy source for India and China is coal. At present 75 percent
of China's energy comes from coal.
According to the assumptions for a baseline Chinese scenario
presented by Professor Wu Zhongxin of Tsinghua University, the
"primary energy supply will continue to depend largely on the
exploitation and utilization of domestic energy resources," meaning
coal. Importation of a large amount of natural gas and oil "will
be considered as national strategy" in the long term. The country
plans to speed up its exploitation of hydropower, and is in the
process of building immense dams, such as the Three Gorges Dam
on the Yangtze River. Nuclear power is expected to play an important
role in easing pressure on fossil fuel supplies, especially in
the coastal areas where economic growth is high and energy is
short. A smaller role is envisioned for renewable fuels: biomass,
wind, solar, waste gassification as a supplementary source for
"rural and remote areas."
China's population, at 1.14 billion in 1990, is estimated to
grow to 1.3 billion by 2000, and will eventually level off around
2050. China's economy has been growing at the impressive rate
of 9 - 10 percent in the early 90s and is expected to slow somewhat
in the years 2000 - 2010 to 7 to 8 percent.
The scenario for CO2 emissions resulting from vigorous economic
activity as presented by Prof. Wu starts with 590 million tons
of carbon issued into the atmosphere in 1990, more than doubles
to 1324 Mt-c in the year 2010 and rises to 1853 in 2030. (Emissions
are currently running at 10.5 percent of the world total.)
Despite its projected heavy reliance on coal, China accords a
high priority in its energy development policy to technologies
for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and has plans to implement
a national program.
Technology priorities include:
-
more energy efficiency and conservation
-
improved demand side management at the local village level
-
changes in the transportation sector
-
Important mitigation technologies in the industrial
sector involve:
-
the upgrading of industrial processes and replacing small
boilers with larger units
-
improving electric furnaces, and electric motors, including
speed adjustment
Residential and commercial sector changes include:
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substituting city gas for cooking fuel,
-
installing district space heating
-
promoting energy saving in buildings, lighting and electric
appliances
Transportation sector improvements include:
Energy savings from such actions are considerable, estimated
to amount to 12 percent for boilers and 25 percent for electric
motors and lighting.
Other gains have been made and will continue in harnessing methane
emissions from coal mines to use as domestic fuel, as raw material
for industry and for power generation.
Most greenhouse gas mitigation policies have been included in
China's energy development plans, and the rate of emissions in
relation to energy production is expected to decline dramatically
in the future. However, because of the growth of the population,
the economy and the accompanying energy consumption rates, greenhouse
gas emissions will "inevitably increase by [a] large amount,"
Wu stated.
China is the second largest power user in the world after the
US, according to Susan McDade of UNDP, and consumes three times
the amount of energy as India and five times as much as Brazil.
For now, with its consumption rate of one ton of carbon equivalent
per capita in 1990, its per capita emissions are small.
Only one-third of China's household energy - which itself has
very low thermal efficiency - is generated by power plants, adding
to the complexity of the situation. In general a very large proportion
of power generation comes from very small power stations. However,
the economy is so buoyant that it is able to meet demand despite
its low efficiency.
The challenge, McDade said, is to act now: to renovate capital
stock and at the same time, in public policy, to change operations
from the public to the private sector. Township and village enterprises
are unregulated and account for 30 percent of the total value
added to the GNP. They are plugged into the market economy and
export-oriented. These enterprises are the main source of new
employment and the main reason emigration rates are not larger.
Many energy efficiency processes are not possible because of
tight credit, and it is here that Western banks and other lending
organizations could have a major influence. China lacks experience
in renewable energy and thus offers a large opportunity for partnership
with other countries.
China is by far the most important country with which to form
a green energy partnership, said Bill Nitze, assistant administrator
for international activities at US EPA. The country has the highest
sustained rate of growth and ambitious goals, but by 2010 it will
have doubled its greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector.
He noted that efficiency has improved but China will fall short
of achieving climate convention goals.
He suggested according special status to improving efficiency
as a joint project on sustainable development in partnership with
China. EPA can set up with Beijing an energy efficiency center
covering Green Lights, energy service companies, industrial end
use efficiency in building materials, in iron and steel. Other
options include a feasibility study on coal gassification, development
of energy efficient refrigerators, coal bed methane fluid process,
research on livestock ruminant emissions, a joint program on mobile
sources of emissions and a look at non-oil-based fuel options
for autos (considering that by 2010 it is conservatively estimated
that China will have two million cars).
These proposals are just a modest beginning, said Nitze, and
have omitted research in such areas as health. Fundamental changes
in the social structure of China are needed, Nitze stated. Even
with the optimistic assumptions of Professor Wu, he noted, we
will see a doubling to a quadrupling of emissions or even worse.
"We cannot permit this to happen."
Climate change brings a number of threats to China including
the possibility of sea level rise inundating an area of China
the size of Portugal, possibly displacing 70 million people, McDade
commented. Sir Crispin Tickell added that there are drastic changes
in rainfall patterns in China, in addition to the fact that there
is a general shortage of both water and heat in the country. There
are many jokers in the pack, he suggested.
