from Climate Alert Volume 10, No. 1 January-February 1997

As in most other countries, Japan's emissions have been increasing in the 90s, in Japan's case from 320 million tons of Carbon in 1990 to 343 MtC in 1994, reports Shuzo Nishioka, Director of the Global Environmental Research Division of Japan's Environment Agency. The target for the year 2000 is reduction to 330 MtC. A committee searching mid-term technological possibilities issued a report in May 1996 suggesting reduction of CO2 emissions by 6.6 MtC by the year 2000. This could be done by picking up promising technologies in the following areas:

Some examples of the technologies listed were:

• advanced combined cycle engines: gas turbines plus boiler plus steam turbines

• ultra-supercritical steam cycle; pressurized fluidized bed combined cycle
  

• repowering of nuclear plants
  

• repowering of private thermal power generation
  

• industrial waste power generation
  

• steam jet gas turbine or gas turbine and waste power generation
  

• compact fluorescent lamps
  

• improved heat pump and air conditioner systems
  

• lean-burn gasoline engines
  

• introduction of CNG and hybrid vehicles
  

Japan has already taken some steps:

1) pledging to improve energy efficiency in automobiles nine percent by the year 2000
2) strengthening standards and subsidies under the Energy Conservation Act
3) exercising local government initiatives, such as traffic control in Kamakura City
4) a voluntary program led by Keidanren; approval of 11 Joint Implementation projects

Akira Kinoshita of a Tokyo-based engineering research firm reports that Japan has achieved the highest efficiency intensity in the world. In addition, the nation has diversified its energy supplies to include nuclear, gas and coal, but dependence on oil remains at 60 percent. The target for oil's share in the year 2000 is 53 percent. Given this reliance on fossil fuels and noting that the public grows ever more wary of nuclear energy, it is going to be very difficult to reach the goal of stabilizing CO2 emissions at 1990 levels on a per capita basis by 2000, Mr. Kinoshita argues.

If total final consumption continues to grow at one percent per year and, assuming 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity and two percent growth of new energy inputs, it will be impossible to achieve the emission target even by 2030, he says. (Additionally, non-OECD Asian developing countries are expected to increase their demand share to 33 percent compared to 24 percent today, based on the assumption that it will be possible to radically reduce energy intensity. Since energy intensity has been rising rather than falling and considering the lack of energy institutional capacity, reaching the target will be a very difficult task.)

For Japan to reach its 2030 target, it would have to reduce growth in energy requirements from one percent per year to 0.5 percent . Various measures could be used:

• better housing insulation

• stricter standards for appliances

• more use of public transport

• more efficient commodity flows

• consolidated urban circuits

• improved fuel efficiency for vehicles

• accelerated demand system management

The government could strengthen incentives for new energy so that it could grow from one percent of the total energy mix to two percent.

The most significant measure would be support of photovoltaics. Other steps would include:

• encouragement of continued purchase of new energy by utilities

• government support for municipal wind energy projects at 5 - 10 sites

• introduction of 200 clean energy-based cars in specific areas. (The share of government and municipal cars using clean fuel will be targeted at 10 percent.)

• government support for cogeneration facilities from waste and other unused sources

• encouragement of use of heat pumps

• fuel cell use by industries and municipalities

Kinoshita advocates a "more holistic transformation in urban and traffic systems" taking external costs into full account. He also urges optimum recycling of water, multi-functional reservoirs, and effective use of rainfall. Greening could greatly reduce urban temperature; if urban green coverage could reach 50 percent, maximum city temperatures could be reduced 4 - 5 ° C. Roof greening is estimated to save energy consumption in office buildings by 16 percent and 31 percent in collective housing.

Kinoshita describes a "total integrated management of energy and urban systems," based on an information system consisting of both hardware and software to build a chain or network for production, conversion, transport, final consumption, waste disposal and recycling. The information systems will integrate diversified use patterns in industrial, transportation, commercial and residential sectors with diversified large and small scale supply sources.

Believing cost effective use of energy should be pursued on a global scale, he advises planning in developing countries to avoid the failures made by the industrialized countries. He recommends:

• distributing model package projects to developing countries as a link in the chain of Joint Implementation

• development of planning models to support an energy system integrated with urban planning

• establishment of international facilities to bring together planning experts

Roger Gale, President of the Washington International Energy Planning Group, pointed out that in Japan major industrial producers as well as government have accorded high priority to efforts to limit greenhouse emissions.