Kyoto Meeting Made Strides But Left Many Issues for COP 4
Much was accomplished at Kyoto, and much was left undone. The
setting of binding limits is an unprecedented step, and attempting
to reduce industrial country emissions nearly 30 percent below
the levels currently projected for the year 2010 will be a challenge,
particularly to the US. The fact that a protocol was approved
at all by the 160 countries present was attributable to the skill
of Ambassador Raul Estrada-Oyuela who bridged a chasm between
theUS , and EU, then derailed a seeming filibuster by some OPEC
countries in COP’s concluding all night sesion. But many
issues were left dangling, and there is much to be settled at
the next meeting, COP4, in Buenos Aires next November.
The first obstacle to be overcome is a procedural Catch-22. In
the waning hours of COP3 weary delegates decided to defer action
to COP4 on such crucial issues as emissions trading, compliance
mechanisms, sinks and joint implementation. Without some delineation
of the emissions trading and sink provisions, it is unlikely that
many industrial countries outside Western Europe would consider
approving such a protocol. Yet the Kyoto Protocol can be amended
only after it has come into force - 90 days after two conditions
are met: 50 countries have ratified, and ratifiers include countries
producing 55 percent or more of 1990 industrial country emissions.
It is extremely unlikely that either condition will be met 90
days before COP4. Thus, the Buenos Aires Conference will have
no authority to amend a treaty which has yet to come into force.
There is an obvious out: COP4 could approve a substitute using
the text of the Kyoto Protocol on most provisions but filling
in the blanks concerning emissions trading, compliance mechanisms,
etc.
Protocol Provisions. The agreement sets varying targets
for the industrial countries, averaging a 5.2% reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2008 - 2012.
For the US, the reduction is 7% (significantly below stabilization,
originally proposed), for EU 8%, Japan 6%. A few nations are allowed
a stable target; three are permitted increases: Australia 8%,
Norway 1%, and Iceland 10%.
(At present per capita emissions by the US are more than double
those of Japan, triple France and 10 times those of Brazil.)
The US persuaded the other nations to agree to the international
trading of emission credits, but implementation details were
postponed till COP4. Trading would be “supplemental to domestic
actions,” and limited to those agreeing to binding emission
limits. Joint implementation was converted to a “Clean Development
Mechanism,” a clearinghouse for investment in sustainable
development projects, such as a fuel-efficient power plant, in
return for credits. The mechanism will be supervised by the Convention
Secretariat, pending establishment of verification procedures.
Compliance. No enforcement provisions were included, but
nations which do not inventory and report their emissions will
not be eligible to buy credits. Procedures to address non-compliance
will be adopted by an amendment, which would require separate
ratification.
Developing countries. “Voluntary opt-in” was
dropped but perhaps developing nations may join the protocol by
a simple amendment to the list of participants.
Loopholes. Russia and the Ukraine were assigned a target
of 100% of 1990 levels rather than proposed reductions to bank
emission credits since 1990.
Basket of Gases. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
perfluoro-carbons, hydrofluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride
are all included.
Sinks. The possibility of credit for enhancing greenhouse
gas-absorbing sinks was included but further study was mandated.
Ratification. Participants have one year to ratify, starting
in March 1998. The US will not submit the treaty for ratification
until it finds “meaningful participation” of key developing
countries. It is not clear whether President Clinton will sign
the treaty before COP4.
