Bangladesh Country Report
A definite trend toward increasing rainfall is expected to accompany
climate change in Bangladesh, an ominous development in a country
with such large areas of low elevation. Considering the possibility
of greater variability in precipitation, water management is a
key adaptation issue, with improved irrigation facilities to stabilize
food grain production. High priority is suggested for a national
system of tradable water rights. Since many of Bangladesh's rivers
arise in the Himalayas of Nepal and India, regional cooperation
in water management and water sharing is accorded front rank.
The consequence of much more rain would be severe flooding; a
10 percent increase in rainfall would be followed by an increase
in runoff depth of around 20 percent. With a one meter rise in
sea level, one fifth of the nation's land and nearly 15 percent
of the population would be threatened by inundation. The Sundarbans,
one of the world's richest mangrove forests, would disappear,
leading to a major loss in biodiversity, loss of a natural sink
for greenhouse gases, and loss of biomass which is a major energy
source in the country.
The impact on the Bangladesh economy of climate change would
be extremely adverse: an annual loss of $1 billion of GDP by 2010,
$5 billion by 2070.
Despite these implications, the Bangladesh country report stresses
a consideration that is probably true in most developing countries:
eradication of poverty is the nation's highest priority, with
climate change issues occupying a distinctly lower level of importance.
At highest priority are "no regrets" measures such as distribution
of improved cooking stoves, participation in forestry action programs,
more efficient water management in the dry period, construction
of coastal shelters from rising seas, and planting of more trees.
Reforming of forestry and energy prices, also a "no regrets" strategy,
takes second priority with a particular focus on energy efficiency
in appliances, equipment and industrial processes. These recommendations
have already been approved and are under active consideration.
In third place come water management during monsoons, strengthening
coastal embankments, reducing methane emissions from rice fields
and livestock, and more emphasis on future forestry development
to replace the biomass that may be lost in the Sundarbans.
Development of high-yielding crop varieties resistant to salt,
submergence and drought as well as close observation of the behavior
of crops in a changing climate rank high on Bangladesh's research
agenda.
Monitoring sea level rise is a crucial concern for a nation with
vast, heavily populated river deltas, and Bangladesh plans to
keep a close sea rise check on a national basis and join others
for regionwide observations. A high priority is put on regional
cooperation in water management and water -sharing, which the
report states has a "lackluster record." The Government's flood
control policy comes under severe criticism for lack of consideration
of environmental impacts in planning, design and operation.
A newly developed storm alert system, plus the country's storm
shelter program, are invaluable for this country with a long history
of recurrent losses of hundreds of thousands of lives in cyclones
and tidal waves. The new system is credited with probably keeping
the death toll below 500 in a May 1994 storm in sharp contrast
to the death of more than 130,000 in a major cyclone in 1991.
Because of its low energy use and predominantly agricultural
sources of greenhouse gases, emissions are less important than
in many of the other participating countries. But the Bangladesh
report expresses an interest in developing tradable rights in
greenhouse gas emissions.
Team Leader: Dr. M. Asaduzzaman
FAX: (880) 2 813 023
Study Conducted By: Bangladesh Consultant, Bangladesh Institute
of Development Studies
Implementing Agency: Ministry of Forests and Environment
