from Climate
Alert Volume 7, No. 4 July-August 1994
Pioneering Study of 8 Asian Nations Examines Implications
of
Climate Change for Region
Nations in Asia and the Pacific are especially concerned about
the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere because of the
potential effect on the region from climate change related shifts
in patterns of storms, floods and droughts as well as a rise in
sea level. As this region has been historically vulnerable to
fluctuations in the monsoons, the El Nino Southern Oscillations
and tropical cyclones, Asian policymakers have shown considerable
interest in the implications of climate change. A $1.45 million
cooperative eight-nation study, funded by the Asian Development
Bank (ADB), the Governments of Australia, Japan and Norway, and
organized by the Climate Institute, published August 11, details
the possibly profound impacts of greenhouse-induced climate change
and sets forth a wide range of cost effective measures to deal
with them.
The eight countries participating in the massive ADB international
project - Bangladesh, India,
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Pakistan, the Philippines,
Sri Lanka and Viet
Nam - contain one-fourth of the world's population and probably
an even larger portion of those most vulnerable to climate change.
Large numbers of residents live in low coastal areas or river
deltas where sea level rise and flooding are the likeliest devastating
consequences of rises in global temperatures as the climate shifts.
A remarkable spirit of cooperation imbued this project initiated
by the Office of Environmental Affairs of the ADB and carried
out by the Climate Institute and its 12-nation team of over 60
experts. Each country team identified the significant, potentially
disruptive impacts of climate change, chose policy options to
combat sea level rise, depletion of forests, etc., and national
strategies for implementing the options. Each government approved
the scope of the country study. These study findings and recommendations
were presented at national workshops and accepted. At two regionwide
meetings - in Manila in July 1992 and Bangkok in March 1993 -
Regional Study team members and officials of participating governments
and international agencies discussed common methodologies and
strategies. Developed over 27 months the study findings have been
presented to and endorsed by the governments of the eight participating
nations.
Despite differing vulnerabilities to climate change and differing
resources to respond, the country studies all underscore the importance
of cooperative action among the nations of Asia to address the
common challenge - by improved monitoring of climate change and
early warning signs of key environmental indicators and by cooperative
research on monsoons, ENSOs (El Nino/Southern Oscillations), tropical
cyclones. Significant progress is already underway on these and
other fronts: studying how crops are affected and how they can
be bred for improvement, sharing information on technological
options to limit greenhouse gas emissions and developing cooperative
strategies to respond to natural disasters.
A team of 17 international experts assisted national teams from
each of the eight nations which carried out the individual core
studies of climate change implications - such as reduced harvests,
changes in availability of water - and responses. The impacts
tend to be quite substantial and, on balance, generally adverse,
particularly by 2070, by which time the earth is expected to realize
the full impact of an effective doubling of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere. Sea level rise, the likeliest consequence of global
warming, is projected to produce especially severe effects for
seven of the eight countries involved.
Each country team working closely with its government developed
detailed analyses of vulnerability to climatic or weather-related
events, potential impacts of climate change in 2010 (a period
within the scope of long-range national plans) and 2070, and estimates
of national emissions of greenhouse gases. The Atmospheric Research
Division of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organization (CSIRO) developed low, mid and high climate
change scenarios as a foundation for impact assessments in each
country study, using available simulated data from a number of
high resolution general circulation models.
The impact studies assessed options to cope with climate change
and proposed national response strategies, undergirded by climate
scenarios and impacts methodologies provided by the international
team led by the Climate Institute and by population and economic
growth estimates developed by the country teams.
Using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission
inventory guidelines and working with ICF, a Washington-based
consulting firm, each country provided greenhouse gas estimates
focused on 1990. In some cases, inventories were not exhaustive;
only partial data were available, and actual totals might be higher.
Energy-related emissions are expected to grow most rapidly, with
significant increases in the next 20 years. While burning of fossil
fuels is overall the largest single emissions source, in three
countries agricultural emissions predominate. Besides energy and
agriculture, the emissions - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous
oxide - come from forests converted to farms, waste management,
and industrial processes.
The teams evaluated the technology and economic feasibility of
their options: to adapt to climate change and limit emissions
or enhance sinks. (Recognition of the reality that long-term benefits
of limiting greenhouse gas emissions may clash with urgent needs
to alleviate poverty led to creation of the Global Environment
Facility, designed to compensate developing countries for their
costs in addressing global concerns.)
A challenge, what Dr. Kazi F. Jalal, ADB Chief of the Office of
the Environment calls in the report's foreword one of the most
significant challenges of our time, is devising a response to
global concerns without hampering progress and growth in the Asian
developing countries. They are understandably unwilling to sacrifice
their goals for a problem largely caused elsewhere. More efficient
energy technologies, up-to-date transportation systems, sustainable
techniques for forestry and land-use may advance development without
contributing to a critical global problem.
Strong support for such measures is provided in the eight country
studies which generally rely on options and strategies for development
that emphasize a "no regrets" framework, taking measures now that
yield benefits even if climate changes do not occur. Immediate
improvement of energy efficiency is high on the list of options
as it promotes development goals.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Huge populations will be displaced, potentially producing millions
of environmental refugees:
-
3.3 million people by 2070 from flooding and inundation of
settlements in low-lying areas in Indonesia. Jakarta, where
excessive pumping of ground water has caused the land to subside
alarmingly, is at particular risk, with the prospect of more
than a one meter sea level rise by 2070.
-
7.1 million at risk in India
-
large-scale displacement in Bangladesh
-
submergence of parts of Manila and other areas in the Philippines
-
large populations living on river deltas in Viet Nam where
nearly 5,000 km of dikes need to be constructed or strengthened
The effects on mangrove forests are stark. The Sundarbans, Bangladesh's
rich mangrove cover, is likely to be destroyed as would much of
Malaysia's. Pakistan, least affected by sea level rise, would
face the loss of the mangrove forests which are the source of
fuel wood and food to local inhabitants and breeding ground for
90 percent of Pakistan shrimp, its main fisheries export.
Inundation of much of the Red River and Mekong Delta in Viet Nam
would seriously threaten rice production and food security. In
Bangladesh, where the vast majority of the population of over
100 million is engaged in agriculture, large losses in farmlands
are likely.
Sri Lanka would lose significant revenue from tourism and fisheries.
The 10-volume study includes an executive summary, Climate
Change in Asia, eight country reports and a thematic report
covering agriculture, water resources, coastal areas, forestry
and land use, greenhouse gas emission inventories, mitigation
strategies, and economic implications. It was edited by Dr.
Ata Qureshi and David Hobbie. Dr. Qureshi served as team leader
for the study.
For further information, please contact: Chief, Office of the
Environment, Asian Development Bank, P.O. Box 789, 1099 Manila,
Philippines;FAX 632/741-7961 or Dr. Ata Qureshi, FAX: 202/547-0111.
Summaries are available for:
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