Indonesia Country Report
Climate change will alter the daily lives of millions of Indonesians
by threatening everything from adequate food and water supplies
to ecotourism revenues. Reverberating throughout the natural and
socioeconomic environments, sea level rise, increased temperatures,
and disrupted rain cycles will affect coasts, river basins, and
upland areas. Agriculture, fisheries, and other sectors which
are central to Indonesian cultures, subsistence, and economies
will be particularly sensitive to these changes.
As an archipelago of nearly 17,000 islands with a total coastline
exceeding 81,000 kilometers, Indonesia will suffer significantly
from even very small rises in mean sea level. Industry, infrastructure,
and urban populations are concentrated in low lying coastal areas.
Of a total population of 179.4 million people, approximately 110
million live in coastal areas. The inundation of seaports, beach
resorts, and inland or coastal fisheries, intrusion of saltwater
into coastal freshwater aquifers and shallow ground water, and
changed tidal ranges would severely affect millions of Indonesians,
if not by directly displacing them, by eliminating the industrial
or agricultural zones or fisheries upon which their livelihoods
and welfare depend, salinating their drinking water supplies,
over-whelming flood control and sewer systems , or disrupting
marketing and transportation networks and hence their access to
goods.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will depress
agricultural productivity, eliminate possibilities for continuing
cultivation of some upland crops, accelerate soil erosion and
siltation of waterways, disrupt fisheries, cause biodiversity
loss, and raise the incidence of water- and mosquito- borne diseases.
While changes in the atmospheric concentrations of certain gases
may enhance tree growth, the net effect of climate change will
hardly be positive. The adaptation measures required and economic
opportunities foregone would cost Indonesia tens of billions of
dollars annually.
In 1990, there were just over 2 million people living within
a 2-meter elevation of the sea in settlements along the shore.
Demographic projections suggest that 3.3 million people may be
displaced by flooding and inundation of these low-lying settlements
by the year 2070. The cost of replacing or rehabilitating their
approximately 800,000 homes and resettling them is estimated at
US$ 8 billion.
Sea level rise is of particular concern in Jakarta because parts
of the city are already subsiding rapidly, apparently because
of excessive exploitation of ground water, soil compression due
to heavy construction and tectonic subsidence of northern Java.Very
conservative estimates of these combined effects plus climate
change suggest that sea level will rise to 2.0 meters above the
current reference point, which is already submerged by 60 cm of
water. Tens of thousands of structures would be inundated: homes,
schools, industrial facilities, hospitals, office buildings.
In the energy sector, unless advanced CO2 scrubbing technology
is applied, emissions from solid fossil fuels will grow due to
future massive use of coal. Emissions from liquid fossil fuels
will likely decrease significantly as Indonesia runs out of oil.
Altogether, energy-derived GHG emissions are expected to increase
three- to eight- fold over 1988 levels. Emissions from the transportation
sector, which already accounts for 30% of Indonesia's energy consumption,
are particularly alarming because of their rapid growth. Expanded
rice cultivation may, substantially increasing harvest areas,
biomass yields, and hence CH4 emissions.
Many emission-reducing actions available to Indonesia also have
other benefits for the country's economy. Using least-cost mitigation
options, the additional costs involved in installing the technologies
to reduce emissions from transportation, industry, and electricity
generation have been roughly estimated at $1 billion annually
in 2001, increasing to $3 billion annually by 2021.
The country team suggests that national strategies favor adaptation
over mitigation and preventative over curative action.
Finally, since climate change originates from industrialized
countries' development, they should be prepared to help Indonesia
field the considerable financial and technical resources required
to implement adaptation or mitigation responses. Indonesia should
actively seek to collaborate more intensively with other developing
countries, particularly the members of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations, in exchanging information and strengthening their
collective bargaining position in international negotiations concerning
climate change.
Team Leader: Agus P. Sari
FAX: (62-21) 292 6163
Study Conducted By: Wahana Lingkungan Hidup Indonesia (WALHI)
and Pelangi Indonesia
Implementing Agency: State Ministry for the Environment, Indonesia
