Malaysia Country Report
Climate change could cause the collapse of essential industries
- coastal tourism, mangrove products and fisheries - along Malaysia's
extended shoreline which is now devoted either to agriculture
or dense cities. Beaches may retreat up to 100 meters inland and
beach hotels may be ruined. Bunds may be overtopped and abandoned,
and the sea may advance 2.5 km inland, causing widespread destruction
of agricultural land and facilities.
The population density is now 860 persons per square kilometer
in the state of Penang, making it comparable to some of the most
densely settled parts of The Netherlands, and the trend is likely
to endure. As the population expands, the coastal zone deteriorates.
In developing a program to adapt to climate change, the Malaysian
team recognized that the 4800 km coastline cannot be lined with
embankments. Desperate attempts to keep out the invading seas
will be largely unsuccessful. While undeveloped coastal areas
may be allowed to retreat without adverse effect, urban centers
and agricultural areas with their rural settlements may have to
be defended. Urban land may be reclaimed through land-fill operations,
but only if environmental impact assessments have shown them to
be environmentally acceptable. Unless significant coastal protection
measures are initiated, a large-scale relocation program for displaced
people will be needed.
A large range of impacts is predicted for the two time frames,
2010 and 2070. Model simulations forecast that floods will be
more frequent and inundate larger areas as flood peaks may increase
9 percent when banks spill over. Additional impacts - frequency
and intensity of storm surges, runoff from rivers , the impact
on sedimentation, the rate and direction of littoral drift and
the occurrence of extreme events - complicate matters. The varying
magnitudes of all these effects on mangrove and coral systems
are nonlinear, and the response of mangroves to rising seas is
not well understood. Some preliminary results show that, although
more information is needed, the mangrove coastline is actually
advancing despite severe erosion in some localities. However,
under a "do nothing" approach, by 2070, mangroves are headed for
massive destruction. If no allowance is made for their migration
landward they will be severely depleted, and all mangrove islands
will have disappeared.
Under climate change, rainfall may rise but less water is likely
to be available as an expected rise in temperatures - up to 3°
C by 2030 - will increase the rate of evapo-transpiration. An
expanding population will place heavier demands for supplies of
domestic, industrial and irrigation water at the same time as
potential water resources decline. Agriculture has already encroached
into some areas previously considered unsuitable for cultivation.
The water deficit in the dry season may increase 30-35 percent,
exacerbating the irrigation shortage and reducing the area under
cultivation. Water prices may rise.
Tourism is now the third largest earner of foreign exchange for
Malaysia, but without careful management, beaches may become narrower
and disappear. A lack of guidelines encourages over-exploitation.
Although there are excellent opportunities for eco-tourism, the
industry has concentrated on luxury hotels and beach/island resorts
which entail large changes in the natural environment.
No national effort has been made to calculate total carbon emissions;
instead the emissions inventory includes only estimates of carbon
emissions from fuel burning in 1990. Data show that power stations
consume approximately 45 percent of energy used, industry another
45 percent, and domestic and commercial uses a final 10 percent.
Policymakers will have to compare the costs and benefits of options
with a "do nothing" approach. Because sea level rise is gradual
and unspectacular and decisionmakers need "concrete" evidence
before acting and the evidence is difficult to present, it is
easy to put off making the necessary plans, setting aside land
and committing funds for structures. It is also tempting to search
for technical solutions such as massive sea walls or pump drainage
schemes. But social and political implications must be addressed
and planning in anticipation of change must be done.
Team Leader: Dr. Chan Huan Chiang
FAX: (603) 292 6163
Study Conducted By: Malaysian Institute of Economic Research
Implementing Agencies: Economic Planning Unit of the Prime Minister's
Department, Malaysia; MInistry of Science, Technology and Environment,
Malaysian Meteorological Service
