Sri Lanka Country Report
By the year 2070, climate change in Sri Lanka is likely to have
brought average temperatures to their highest level in the past
120 years and extreme weather that will cause high environmental
damage. Impacts on the nation's coastal area, site of the largest
concentration of people and economic activity, will be most severe
with flooding and storm surges, beaches narrowed by erosion -
leading to possible damage to hotels - and salt water invasion
of estuaries and aquifers. The coastal population estimated at
about 7.5 million in 2000 will have nearly doubled by 2070.
Population growth has already strained the land. In the last century,
the amount of land per person has shrunk to one seventh of its
former size. Agricultural activity has not declined and the forests
have suffered. Pollution and climate change have already affected
water resources but measuring the impact is difficult. Although
rainfall may increase, if it is due to extreme events, much of
the water may be lost through runoff to the sea. Large losses
can be expected in paddies which are already affected by flooding,
poor water, saline intrusion and iron toxicity. Sri Lanka is already
quite vulnerable to drought and an increase in drought is assumed.
So although larger harvests to feed an increasing number of mouths
will require more water, less will be available and it will need
to be managed more efficiently.
In the vital agriculture sector, more than one-fourth of the
nation's GNP,.projected flooding will ruin some farmland; rising
seas and invading salt water will harm more.
Sri Lanka's variety of growing zones give it the ability to diversify
and be less dependent on fluctuations of rice and wheat . Crop
varieties and cropping patterns can be changed.. Yams, tubers,
jack and bread fruit and other nontraditional fruit crops could
be tried. However, conservation methods, organic farming and introduction
of new crop varieties are hampered by a lack of knowledge and
by the prospect of low yields in initial years. Crop intensity
is now stagnant; higher intensity is possible.
Rational water pricing would help but some farmers oppose it.
As an alternate, having farmers participate in managing irrigation
is being tested. Other strategies include better use of rain water,
growing crops that require less water, planting hillsides and
reforesting. Sri Lanka's forest cover has shrunk to a critical
level and is currently about one fourth of the country's area.
Few dramatic options are available for limiting greenhouse gas
emissions, according to the report, although a large increase
in energy demand is projected. Under the base case, steep increases
in greenhouse emissions from the energy sector are projected with
an increase of more than thirty-fold projected between 1990 and
2070. Through energy conservation, emissions of CO2 in both 2010
and 2070 could be held about 20 percent below the base case scenario.
Industry could improve its biomass fuel conservation and experiment
with alternate energies - wind, small hydropower, and later nuclear
energy. New technologies could be introduced, along with more
water transportation, city planning, improved telecommunications.
Most mitigation strategies are related to vehicles. While Sri
Lanka's current contribution to worldwide greenhouse gas emissions
is characterized as "insignificant" in the country report, it
does state that vehicle emissions in urban areas are already causing
problems and are an important target for mitigation
Creation of a national program is proposed for extreme events
such as floods, drought and landslides, with a shift in emphasis
from relief to mitigation and a decentralization of disaster management.
The program includes enhancement of an early warning system, building
of draft resistant structures and use of low cost disaster management
technologies. Increased flooding will bring more disease -more
contact between host and parasite - and warmer temperatures are
conducive to the breeding of malaria and filaria vectors.
Poverty, the Sri Lanka team states, leads to bad land use and
degradation, soil erosion, a shortage of water and perpetuation
of rural destitution. Minimizing population growth and sustainable
use of natural resources are recommended for alleviation. Response
to climate change, the team notes, will depend on cooperation
among key players on the global, regional and national levels.
Team Leader: Dr. Godfrey Gunatilleke
FAX: (941) 580 585
Study Conducted By: Marga Institute
Implementing Agency: Ministry for Environmental and Parliamentary
Affairs, Sri Lanka
