Viet Nam Country Report
The vast majority of the people of Viet Nam - about 80 percent
- are engaged in agriculture, the economic sector most likely
to be affected by climate change: increased temperatures and rainfall,
sea level rise, more typhoons, floods and other disasters. Because
of the potential adverse consequences to so many of its citizens,
the country has begun to consider climate change issues actively.
Viet Nam's rapidly growing population is spread along its 3300
km coastline. A tropical monsoon region, abundantly supplied with
water which is not however evenly distributed, it is already often
threatened by storms and floods, and typhoons. Nearly five typhoons
a year strike the country, and the number has been increasing
in the last two decades, either because of normal variability,
changed observation practices or for some other reason. There
has been a small rise in sea level; the average temperature has
increased by almost 0.1 ° C per decade.
Under climate change scenarios, higher temperatures and less
rain will shrink the water supply by 6 - 20 percent, with some
rivers even more severely affected. More extreme daily and monthly
rainfall will raise the discharge from floods by 10 to 20 percent.
While annual and dry season rainfall have been declining, storm
rainfall has in creased, and seas have risen slightly, a trend
likely to continue. Inundated areas along the coast may increase
by 20 - 30 percent.
Whether droughts will occur more often is not clear, but they
could appear once every two or three years. If protective measures
are not taken by 2070, drought and flood damage could be worse
than record events in 1970 and 1981.
The study recommends research on El Niños and potential
links to rises in temperature, changes in the seasonal pattern
and volume of rainfall as well as the number of typhoons. One
effect of El Niño is to make the sea more salty and shift
areas of upwelling and downwelling. As the center of downwelling
moves away from the coast, productive fishing grounds become more
remote.
Viet Nam's highest adaptation priorities include reservoirs,
afforestation, sea dikes and other coastal protections. Upstream
storage reservoirs will reduce flooding, increase dry season flow
and generate electricity. Reservoirs along the Mekong River, however,
can only be constructed under joint agreement with neighboring
countries.
Afforestation will contain soil erosion, provide CO2 sinks, and
conserve habitats. By 2010, Viet Nam has plans to grow 3 million
hectares of new forest and plant five billion trees. The program
will also include protection of nine million hectares of existing
forest, leading to forest cover of more than one-third of the
land area. Existing species of mangroves may need to be replaced
by species with larger roots.
The only option for saving Viet Nam's large river deltas from
rising oceans are sea dikes which have been protecting the Red
River Delta for centuries. The existing 2700 km dikes may require
reinforcement; with a 90 cm rise in the seas, another 2000 km
of new dikes may need to be built, with total cost nearly US$
one billion , approximately US $13 million per year.
Erosion will cause heavy damage to some beaches, seaports, coastal
cities and infrastructure. Protection will have to be carried
out selectively as costs will be high.
A clean energy policy which includes plans for medium and large
scale hydropower projects is part of the national response strategy
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to producing electricity,
this US$270 million initiative, to be implemented over the next
two decades, will have the added advantage of protecting the land
from flood and augmenting the low flow of rivers in dry spells.
It will take careful planning and expenditure of $1 billion by
2070 to maintain minimum flow at the same time as developing hydropower.
Where it is not possible to build upstream reservoirs, the crop
season will have to be modified and salt resistant crops needing
less water will have to be introduced. More efficient stoves and
the use of coal briquettes to replace agricultural fuels will
also help to lower CO2 emissions, part of a rural energy program
foreseeing expenditures of US$5 - 10 million a year.
Viet Nam is eager for cooperation with other nations in the region
on a number of issues including inventory and control of emissions,
monitoring and forecasting climate change, afforestation and water
shed management and mitigation of climate change impacts.
Team Leader: Dr. Nyuyen Trong Sinh
Study Conducted By: Viet Nam Consultant, Institute of Water Resource
Planning and Management Implementing Agency: Ministry of Water
Resources and General De part ment of Hydrometeorology in cooperation
with the Government of Viet Nam
