EGYPT: Egypt's Port of Alexandria Likely to
Lose Popular Beaches In Next Decades
Even at the present rate of sea level rise, the beaches of Alexandria
Governorate, Egypt's second largest city, will disappear over
the next few decades. Cabins, casinos, houses as well as major
government and private buildings near the beaches will be damaged
or destroyed. A rise of only half a meter would doom nearly all
the beaches, while a rise of one meter, posited in the other studies
in this series, would inundate more than 1,200 km2 of the Governorate,
containing most of the agriculture and much of the industry and
residential areas, affecting the coastal population of two million.
It is obvious that protection is essential.
Alexandria, one of the oldest cities on the Mediterranean, with
a large and expanding urban population, is the country's second
largest economic center after Cairo. Although it is less vulnerable
than the Nile delta proper, because of its high population, variable
topography and because it is the country's main summer tourist
resort and its waterfront the most important import-export link
with Europe, harm to it is of particular concern.
The city's present population of over three million swells to
five million in summer. By 2030, the population is predicted to
increase to eight million, half of it at risk with a one meter
sea rise. But the public's perception of this threat is low, even
in the affluent residential areas. Coast dwellers are aware of
the short-term implications of the failure of their sea defense
systems but know little about long-term global sea level rise.
A high percentage says it is unconcerned and favors doing nothing.
Less than 20 percent say they would be willing to move away if
the sea level rises. It is apparent that there will be strong
political pressure for protection.
The average erosion rate is actually low, only 0.2 meters a year.
But three beaches have disappeared this century and eight of the
12 others are eroding. Even with a half meter rise, the sea would
cover the whole width of 10 of the 12 beaches. With no protection
and a one-meter rise scenario, six million people could be displaced.
Periodic nourishment could preserve the tourist-based beaches
and minimize Mediterranean flooding . It is the best response
also for protecting the lowlands which are below mean sea level
and where more than a million people live on 35 percent of the
Governorate's land.
Salinization of the water supply and soil waterlogging are further
threats, as well as inundation and increased flooding especially
accompanying storm surges. Port facilities will require upgrading.
Help from outside the Governorate will be needed to protect low-lying
areas, particularly east of the Nile delta.
The continuous nourishment of beaches will cost $21 million for
a scenario of a half meter sea rise, double that for a one meter
rise, an apparently appropriate response and within the wealth
and capability of the city. The lowlands will receive the protection
they need especially during the storm surges which occur from
November to May if the beaches are maintained in front of pathways
leading to them.
(M. El-Raey, University of Alexandria, Egypt)
