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Projected changes and impacts

At about 30.2 million km² (11.7 million sq mi) including adjacent islands, Africa covers 6% of the Earth's total surface area and 20.4% of the total land area. ³ Due to the its geography and climate, as well as to the socio-economic situations of many countries on the continent, Africa has been dealing with the implications of climate change for more than three decades --  since the 1970s.  According to the IPCC, environmental changes the continent is set to experience are:

• "Significant increases in temperature by 2010, particularly in the Sahel and in parts of Southern Africa;
• Dramatic decreases in precipitation, declining by more than 20% compared to precipitation levels 20 years ago;
• More frequent and intense tropical storms-- It is projected that parts of the continent will experience a 20% increase in cyclone activity." ⁴

The projected implications for human communities include:

• "Between 75-250 million people are projected to be exposed to water stress in the next 10 years, and as many as 1.8 billion by the end of this century.
• Agriculture fed by rain could drop 50% in some African countries by 2020. The IPCC report predicts that wheat may disappear from Africa by 2080, and that maize—a staple—will fall significantly in southern Africa.
• Arid and semi-arid lands are likely to increase by up to 8% with severe ramifications for livelihoods, poverty eradication and meeting and maintaining the Millennium Development Goals." ⁵

Other environmental problems which will be exacerbated by climate change include deforestation and species loss.

Deforestation

Africa's tropical forests play a key part in regulating the global carbon cycle. Forests hold soil, store water and serve as crucial sinks for carbon dioxide at the same time that burning them as biomass releases CO2 into the atmosphere.  Deforestation worldwide accounts for 20% of total CO2 emissions ⁶, releases 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually and is expected to contribute 87 to 130 billion tons by 2100. ⁷

Experts have estimated that Africa loses between 0.4 and 0.7 percent of its forests annually, though some experest believe that the rate may be higher⁸  While CO2 emissions from technical sources, such as industry and transporation are relatively small in many central African countries, CO2 emissions from deforestation in these same countries is substantial.  Taking into account deforestation, emissions in the twelve heavily wooded equatorial African countries was estimated at 1.1 billion tons in 2005.Template:until.

Rainforest destruction in African countries such as Nigeria, Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire has resulted in severe droughts in West Africa over the past 20 years. At the beginning of this century, the West African coastal rainforests covered around 500,000 square kilometers. Since then, up to 90 per cent have disappeared to make way for agricultural production and other kinds of human activity such as mining. Overgrazing, the expansion of arable land and the growth of the timber industry are the main culprits. ¹⁰ In arid East African countries such as Sudan, Kenya and Ethiopia, deforestation has deepened droughts that have exacerbated poverty and socio-political conflicts. While it is difficult to estimate actual forest coverage loss due to the tumultuous social climate, it is thought that East Africa lost 6 million (5,900,78,000) hectares of forest between 1990 and 2000 alone. ¹¹

Species loss

The changing climates, warming temperatures and shifting availability of resources stress many species of animals and plants, leading to biodiversity loss and species extinction.  Human population growth adds further pressure on other species. ¹²  Recent scientific studies indicate that 15–37% of a sample of 1,103 land plants and animals would eventually become extinct as a result of climate changes expected by 2050. ¹³

Africa contains about one-fifth of all known species of plants, mammals, and birds in the world, as well as one-sixth of amphibians and reptiles. Habitat destruction, hunting, logging and other human behaviors are some of the major causes of species loss. Yet more so, warmer temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns are expected to increase biodiversity loss and species extinction in the African continent. It is likely that Africa's several biodiversity "hotspots" (areas rich in biodiversity) such as the cape floristic region of South Africa, which holds five of South Africa's 12 endemic plant families, will be greatly impacted by climate change.   

African initiatives

In an effort to address climate change, 26 African countries have joined to form the African Climate Solution.  The initiative, launched at the international climate talks in Poznan, Poland, seeks payments from industrialized nations for efforts by developing countries to sequester carbon through land use practices. This would go beyond the proposed reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) mechanism that was also debated at the Poznan conference. ¹⁴  

Footnotes

¹: Nobel Lecture,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , nobelprize.org.

²: Alister Doyle, "Africa says poor need billions to fight climate fight," Reuters, Mon Apr 20, 2009.

³: "World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision"United Nations, Dept of Economic and Social Affairs, population division

⁴: Claudia ten Have, "Africa and climate change," Our World 2.0 (ourworld.unu.edu), July 6, 2008.

⁵: Claudia ten Have, "Africa and climate change."

⁶: 8th Meeting of the Africa Partnership Forum, Berlin, Germany: 22-23 May, 2007.

⁷: "Confirmed: Deforestation Plays Critical Climate Change Role," Science Daily, 11 May 2007. 

⁸: Africa's deforestation rate may be underestimated22 Jun 06, Mongabay.com.

⁹: FAO 2007, United Nations Development Programme, 2007.

¹⁰: Rainforest Destruction Causes Drought Crisis, New Scientist 18 Jan 1997, Genesis of Eden

¹¹: East Africa (Chapter 16), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000, p.31.

¹²: Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0, Mobilizing to Save Civilization. Chapter 5.

¹³: "Feeling the Heat: Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss," Nature, 24 January, 2004.

¹⁴: "Africa proposes its own solution to global warming," Mongabay.com, 10 Dec 2008.

Resources

Africa (Chapter 9)(pdf), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Camilla Toulmin, "Climate Change in Africa," (160 pgs) Zed Books Ltd, 10 Sep 2009, ISBN 978-1-84813-015-9. Outlines current thinking and evidence on climate change, uses case studies to look at issues (natural disasters to biofuels), and investigates Africa's possible future in a carbon-constrained world.