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The term Carbon Market generally refers to "the market for buying and selling of carbon emission allowances, either for compliance, voluntary, or speculative purposes."1 The carbon market exists as a cost-effective tool to tackle climate change, and has mostly developed in response to the Kyoto Protocol. Under the Protocol, the majority of industrialized countries have agreed to lower overall emissions by 5.2% calculated as an average over a five year period from 2008-2012. The countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures, but are also allowed to use emissions trading. Rather than rigidly forcing the reduction of emissions country-by-country, or company-by-company, the carbon market creates a choice: either spend the money to cover the costs of cutting emissions, or continue emitting, and pay someone else to cut their pollution.2
The carbon market has been created to facilitate the buying and selling of the rights to emit greenhouse gases. These rights to emit are often called 'allowances' or 'credits'. The idea behind carbon trading is quite similar to the trading of securities or commodities in a marketplace. Carbon has an economic value, which allows people, companies or nations to trade it. Like in other marketplaces, trading firms, brokers and banks can make money through commissions for organizing carbon deals.
Generally emissions trading schemes are based on a cap and trade system, in combination with baseline and credit principles. In a cap and trade system a limit or cap is set on the amount of pollution that can be emitted from specific sources, for example electricity or aluminum production. These sources are then given and/or buy allowances that represent the right to emit a specific amount of pollution. Sources that emit more than they are allowed have to purchase additional allowances from entities, that have unused allowance, for example because they have switched to 'cleaner' technologies. Cap and trade rewards efficiency and provides an economic incentive to reduce pollution.
Most emission trading schemes also include a baseline and credit system. In such system, sources can purchase emission credits or allowances from projects or programs in which emissions have been reduced below the baseline (i.e. business as usual scenario). Emission reduction can for example be achieved through developing a wind farm projects instead of a coal fired plant project. Credits are normally calculated through comparing the expected emissions in a business as usual scenario with the actual GHG emitted by the project or program. Baseline and credit systems can work in tandem with cap and trade systems whereby the emission reduction credits created under a baseline system are used to essentially offset emissions that are above the cap in the cap and trade system.34
The carbon market has been created in response to the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In order to minimize the cost of reducing emissions, the Protocol provided for 3 mechanisms to allow industrialized countries flexibility in meeting their commitments. The International emissions trading (ET) – trading of emission permits (called Assigned Amount Units or AAUs) among the industrialized countries, and functions as a cap and trade mechanism. The other two Kyoto mechanisms, Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), are 'baseline and credit' systems, which allow industrialized countries and industries to take credit for projects or programs which reduce emissions outside of the cap and trade market. The flexibility in the geographical dimension of the actions taken by industrialized countries to reduce emissions is justified by the scientific fact that it is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the upper atmosphere that matters in the case climate change. JI involves project-based schemes whereby one country can receive emissions credits for financing projects that reduce emissions in another developed country (called Emission Reduction Units or ERUs). CDM allows developed countries to gain emissions credits for financing projects based in developing countries (called Certified Emission Reductions or CERs).5
The European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which was officially launched in January of 2005, is the world’s largest GHG emissions compliance market. In 2008, the EU ETS accounted for 70% of the volume of and 80% of the value of carbon emissions traded in 2008 . New Carbon Finance, Press Resease - Carbon Market up 84% in 2008 at US$118 billion, 2009, http://www.newcarbonfinance.com. Currently the EU ETS includes some 11,000 heavy energy-consuming installations in power generation and manufacturing across 27 European member states. Since the start of 2008, the EU’s neighbours Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway have also participated in the system. Starting in 2012, the EU ETS will be expanded to include aviation emissions from flights to and from European airports.6
The scheme is based on a company-level cap and trade system that allows members to trade emissions, combined with a baseline and credit system through which members can use offsets from Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to help them achieve the mandatory emission reduction targets called for in the Kyoto Protocol. The trading 'currency' in use in the EU ETS is the European Union Emission Allowance (EUA). One EUA gives the right to emit one ton of CO2. The EU Member States draw up national allocation plans setting out how many allowances installations or companies receive each year. Participation in the EU ETS is mandatory for businesses in the sectors covered by the scheme.
The EU ETS is being implemented in three phases:
The value of the EU ETS has increased from US$7,908 million in 2005 to US$94,276 million in 2008.8 The value of a metric ton of carbon in the EU ETS was US$30 in August 2008. As a result of the current economic unstability the value of a metric ton of carbon has decreased to around US$9 in February 2009.9
The New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme (NSW GGAS) commenced on 1 January 2003. Initially scheduled until 2012, the government of the Australian state of New South Wales is extending the scheme to 2020. The GGAS is a mandatory scheme for electricity retailers and certain other parties who buy or sell electricity in NSW. Voluntary participation is also allowed. It imposes annual targets - called benchmarks - for reducing or offsetting the emissions of greenhouse gases from the production of the electricity they supply or use. The benchmarks for the participating companies are expressed in tons of CO2 equivalent per capita, and are based on the size of the participants share of the electricity market. They are gradually decreased.10
GGAS is a "baseline and credit" form of emissions trading, in which participants can purchase emission credits from projects through which emissions are offset. If a GGAS participant emits more than its individual benchmark in a specific year, it needs to purchase NSW Greenhouse Abatement Certificates (NGAC) from Abatement Certificate Providers (ACP).11 ACPs develop project activities that offset greenhouse gases, including reduced emission generation, energy efficiency and forest generation, energy efficiency and forest sequestration.12 APCs receive certificates for the amounts of CO2 equivalent they offset, and can trade these on the GGAS market. Each NGAC represents a ton of emissions reductions.
The value of the NSW GGAS has increased from US$59 million in 2005 to US$269 in 2008.13 The value of one ton of carbon was around US$2 as of February 2009.14
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is the first mandatory, market-based effort in the United States to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The RGGI trading market opened in February 2008.15 The objective of the RGGI is to reduce carbon emissions from the power sector by ten percent by 2018. Ten Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states - Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont - have recently set a regional cap on carbon emissions, and required fossil-fuel power plants to purchase allowances that match their carbon emissions. The cap is set slightly above the emissions level expected over the next few years under business-as-usual conditions. From 2015 to 2020, the cap will decrease annually.16
The RGGI is a cap and trade program with "baseline and credit" components. Utilities can buy emission allowances at auctions or from other participants of the RGGI, who have emitted less CO2 than their allowance. In addition, participants can buy credits from US-based carbon offset projects outside of the capped sector that reduce or sequester emissions of greenhouse gases. Projects are allowed in five categories: landfill methane capture and destruction, reduction in emissions of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) in the electric power sector, sequestration of carbon due to afforestation, reduction or avoidance of CO2 emissions from natural gas, oil, or propane end-use combustion due to end-use energy efficiency in the building sector, and avoided methane emissions from agricultural manure management operations. Under limited circumstances, RGGI also allows purchasing of emission credits from mandatory programs outside the United States (for example from the CDM).17
The value of the RGGI market was US$19 million in 2008.18 RGGI permits sold were sold, through auction, for US$3.07 per ton in September and US$3.38 in December 2008. The next auction will take place in March 2009.19
The Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) operates North America’s only cap-and-trade system for GHG. All participants in the CCX make voluntary, but legally binding, commitments to meet annual GHG reduction targets. Members who reduce beyond their targets have surplus allowances to sell or bank. In order to meet their reduction commitments, members can purchase credits from other members who have made reductions beyond their targets. The credits in the CCX are called Carbon Financial Instrument (CFI) contracts, each of which represents 100 metric tons of CO2 equivalent. CFI contracts are comprised of Exchange Allowances and Exchange Offsets. Exchange Allowances are issued to emitting Members in accordance with their emission baseline and the CCX Emission Reduction Schedule.20
The value of the CCX carbon market has increased from US$3 million in 2005 to US$316 million in 2008.21The value of a metric ton of carbon in the CCX increased from around US$1 in December 2003 to around US$4 in August 2008. As a result of the current economic unstability the value of a metric ton of carbon has decreased to around US$2 in February 2009.22
The Green Exchange was launched in December 2007, as part of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). It serves as a trading market for various international environmental products, including carbon markets products. It trades European EU ETS European Union Emission Allowances (EUA), CDM Certified Emission Reductions (CER), as well as RGGI credits. Currently, all of the emissions and other environmental contracts that are associated with the Green Exchange are listed for trading and clearing by NYMEX. It is expected that the Green Exchange will become a separate designated contract market (DCM) or futures exchange in 2009.23
Outside of CCX and the Green Exchange, a wide range of voluntary transactions exist that are not driven by an emissions cap, and mostly do not trade on a formal exchange. The over-the-counter (OTC) segment does not have a regulated marketplace or agreed to standards. Customers this market are companies and individuals that want to reduce or offset their “carbon footprint.” The market is highly fragmented, with many diverse buyers, sellers, projects developers and project types.24
A carbon credit -or allowance - is equal to one ton of carbon. The value of a carbon credit or ton of carbon has varied significantly since the inception of the market. The value of the one carbon credit in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), currently the largest carbon market in the world, was for example more than US$ 30 in July 2008, but less than US$9 in February 2009. The current low value of carbon credits is closely related to the global economic crisis.25 The economic crisis has caused a downturn in production in many 'polluting' sectors, including cement, automobil, and construction, which has lead to a decrease in emissions in these industries, and thus a decrease in demand of allowances or credits.26
The worldwide global carbon market has grown significantly since its inception. In 2007, it was valued at over US$64 billion, with the total traded volume reaching 2.7 billion tons of greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2007, a 64 percent increase compared with 2006.2728 In 2008, the market value grew to US$118 billion. The carbon market analyst firm New Carbon Finance has predicted that the market will reach a value of $150 billion in 2009, in spite of the uncertain economic climate.29
The carbon market is likely to keep growing significantly. Current developments in both the US and the EU are in the direction of growing cap and trade systems. The EU Member states reached an agreement in late 2008 on stricter rules for the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) after 2012. President Obama of the US has indictated that he plans "to support a mandatory cap on all carbon emissions, with an 80 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050".30
How much and in which direction the market will grow depends largely on the outcomes of the negotiations on an international agreement to follow up on the Kyoto Protocol. An event that will likely influence the market is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) which will be held in Copenhagen in December 2009.
1. Climate Focus, Introduction to emission trading and the carbon market, www.climatefocus.com.
2. : BBC, Q&A: The Carbon Trade, 2006, news.bbc.co.uk.
3. : Investopedia, What is the carbon Trade?, www.investopedia.com.
4. Climate Focus, Introduction to emission trading and the carbon market, www.climatefocus.com.
5. Provone, G., The Kyoto Protocol and the Emerging Carbon Market, 2002, r0.unctad.org.
6. European Commission, EU Action Against Climate Change: the EU Emissions Trading System, ec.europa.eu.
7. : European Commission, EU Action Against Climate Change: the EU Emissions Trading System, ec.europa.eu.
8. New Carbon Finance, Press Release: Carbon Market up 84% in 2008, January 2009.
9. New Carbon Finance, ECX FCI Futures Contracts: Price and Volume.
10. : Global Carbon Exchange, NSW GGAS, www.globalcarbonexchange.com.
11. : GGAS, Introduction to the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme (GGAS), www.greenhousegas.nsw.gov.au.
12. : GGAS, New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme, 2005, www.ieta.org.
13. New Carbon Finance, Press Release: Carbon Market up 84% in 2008, January 2009.
14. : EWN Publishing, Carbon Week, www.carbon.erisk.net.
15. Bloomberg.com, Air-Pollution Market Debut Tests Cap-and -Trade Model (Update 1), September 2008, www.bloomberg.com.
16. : Boston.com, Sensible Climate Legislation, January 2009, www.boston.com.
17. : Reuters, Update1-RGGI carbon emissions auction raises $107 mln, in.reuters.com.
18. New Carbon Finance, Press Release: Carbon Market up 84% in 2008, January 2009.
19. New Carbon Finance, ECX FCI Futures Contracts: Price and Volume.
20. : Chicago Climate Exchange, Overview, www.chicagoclimatex.com.
21. New Carbon Finance, Press Release: Carbon Market up 84% in 2008, January 2009.
22. : Chicago Climate Exchange, Overview, www.chicagoclimatex.com.
23. : NYMEX, The Green Exchange, nymex.greenfutures.com.
24. : Ecosystem Market Place and New Carbon Finance, Forging a Fronteer: State of Voluntary Carbon Markets 2008, www.ecosystemmarketplace.com.
25. : New Carbon Finance, ECX FCI Futures Contracts: Price and Volume.
26. : New Carbon Finance, Press Release: Emissions from the EU ETS down 3% in 2008, February 2009, www.newcarbonfinance.com.
27. : Climate Focus, Introduction to emission trading and the carbon market, www.climatefocus.com.
28. : Environmental News Network, Climate, www.enn.com.
29. : New Carbon Finance, Press Release: Carbon Market up 84% in 2008, January 2009.
30. Reuter, US Venture Capitalists Optimistic on Carbon Market, 2008, www.reuters.com.
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