The Copenhagen Challenge: Prospects for Successful Climate Negotiations [ PDF ]

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Reflections from Uganda

Julie Arrighi, Uganda Red Cross Society

In rural Apac, Uganda, maize is withering and groundnuts are wilting. The primary rainy season, which officially ended in June [i], yielded less rain than normal, leaving many families hungry, and many crops, which should have been harvested by now, thirsty for water in order to reach maturation. What is the cause? One year’s fluctuation is certainly not enough to declare that climate change is real and present. However, speak with local farmers and NGOs and they will tell you that recent years have brought longer dry spells and lower crop yields.

Projected climate change effects in Uganda include more erratic rainy seasons, with increased intensity of less frequent rainstorms, interspersed by longer dry spells [ii]. While this is a common trend around much of the world, roughly 80% of Uganda’s residents rely directly on natural resources to sustain their livelihoods [iii], leaving the population highly vulnerable to an unpredictable climate.

Quantitatively, climatic change in Uganda is hard to prove. Historically, economic constraints and more immediate humanitarian crises have resulted in significant gaps, both spatially and temporally, in Uganda’s climate monitoring network. Qualitatively however, many locals would argue that seasonal changes are already being observed. Throughout Uganda traditional indicators of the proper time to plant are no longer reliable [iv], forcing farmers to take greater risks - plant crops more often in hopes that rains will last, and subsequently lose more when the rains fail to persist.

Many of the negative effects that climate change will have in Uganda are complexly interwoven into a variety of larger social and economic challenges creating a dearth in adaptive capacity. As traditional crops become less suitable for growth due to prolonged dry spells and damage from more intense rains, lower yields will force vulnerable, subsistence families to expand their planting areas or devise alternative sources of income in order to sustain their livelihoods. With limited land available and over 97% of Ugandans reliant on biomass to meet their basic needs for hot water and cooking, it is likely that many subsistence families will turn to charcoal production as an additional source of income [iv].

Deforestation is already a major concern in Uganda. A report released this month states that Uganda lost 30% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2005 and could lose all of its forest cover within the next 41 years, unless deforestation stops [v]. In conjunction with increased intense rainfalls, deforestation will result in increased rates of soil erosion and incidences of flooding [vi]. In many cases this will also lead to higher rates of diarrheal disease due to poorly contained fecal waste contaminating drinking water supplies [vii]. Climate change also threatens Uganda’s vulnerable coffee industry, with the potential of eliminating 40% (256.8 million USD) of Uganda’s export revenue [vi]. Warmer temperatures will also lead to increased incidences of Dengue fever and malaria [vi].

In countless cases throughout Uganda, and much of the developing world, climate change adaptation challenges have been identified, culturally sensitive solutions have been devised and people are eager to begin implementation. At the international level, the newly formed Climate Change Unit in the Ministry of Water and Environment is hard at work preparing Uganda, with the help of the Danish government, to have a stronger voice in the Copenhagen negotiations. The economic realities of implementing wide-scale solutions in developing countries poses a formidable challenge which requires the assistance of the international community – this is why Copenhagen can’t afford to fail.

Works Cited:

[i] Olupot M.; (2009, June 18) Legislators demand report on climate change The New Vision

[ii] IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. P. [Core Writing Team, R.K and Reisinger, A. and (eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland, IPCC.

[iii] Wakikona D (2007) Peace Recovery and Development Plan for Northern Uganda: 2007-2010 Kampala: Government of Uganda

[iv] Magrath J. (2008) “Turning up the Heat: Climate Change and poverty in Uganda” Oxfam GB

[v] Lirri, E.; (2009, June 19) Uganda could be a total desert in 40 years –report The Daily Monitor

[vi] Hepworth, N. and Goulden, M.(2008) Climate Change in Uganda: Understanding the implications and appraising the response, LTS International, Edinburgh

[vii] Taylor, R.G., Miret-Gaspa, M., Mileham, L., Tumwine, J., Howard, G., Flynn, R., Todd, M. and Kulabako, R. in prep. Increased risk of diarrhoeal diseases from climate change: evidence from Uganda. International Association of Hydrological Sciences Red Book (special issue)

Summer 2009 Climate Alert

The Copenhagen Challenge: Prospects for Successful Climate Negotiations [ PDF ]

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