India Country Report

from Climate Alert Volume 7, No. 4 July-August 1994

There are 6500 kms of low-lying, densely-populated coastline in India, placing the lives and livelihood of more than seven million people at risk if the sea level rises by one meter. The economic costs of sea level rise are large amounting to 43 percent of the 1988 GNP, mostly from loss of land, according to the India country study which was conducted by a well-qualified national team led by the Tata Energy Research Institute. Estimates of the average cost of protections, such as bulkheads, dikes, island elevation and beach nourishment, spread over 40 years, come to roughly 0.1 percent of the GNP.

Projections of climate change seem to show no significant shift in summer monsoons or cyclones in India at least during the next few decades, and therefore little effect on water supply is expected, according to this country report. However, the country's growing population and the demands for more water by the agriculture, industry and power sectors will put stress on water resources. Since it is estimated that the country uses only a fraction of its rainfall at present, conservation and effective use of water could help supply future needs.

Wheat yields are likely to increase with the rise in rainfall foreseen by CSIRO models, but higher temperatures would depress yields of both wheat and rice.

The study reports uncertainty about data on the source of greenhouse gas emissions and the rate at which they are produced by specific activities. It advocates ensuring that specific greenhouse gas inventories. draw on local expertise and country specific research data. Standard methodologies for developed countries yield estimates that are too rough for calculating Indian emissions of agricultural or industrial source and the effectiveness of particular sinks.

India can employ both coastal and forestry adaptations in its response to climate change. It can:

• discourage development in areas vulnerable to flooding and manage coastal areas to preserve critical ecosystems
• conserve existing forests, plant trees on degraded lands, establish protected areas for biodiversity. (Already 12.7 million hectares are in nature reserves.)

Biomass makes up 40 percent of energy consumption in the country. Up to 1990, India had begun tree plantations on nearly 18 million hectares of land, and the study team chose afforestation as the "no regrets" alternative with the largest potential for reducing CO2 emissions. A large afforestation program, planting two million hectares per year, is proposed. Five forestry scenarios, each under potential, feasible, or business-as-usual conditions, yield varying returns on investment for carbon sequestration options and demonstrate there is no conflict between obtaining local benefits, such as biomass production and soil conservation, and carbon sequestration:

1. Natural regeneration recommended for partially degraded forests lands would cover about 25 million hectares.
2. Enhanced natural regeneration for totally degraded forest lands would target about 11 million hectares. This would include biodiversity and watershed management and provisions of non timber forest products and small timber to local communities
3. Community woodlots - permanent pasture lands to meet local biomass needs in a sustainable way, raising trees for firewood, timber and non timber forest products
4. Softwood - clear-cutting part of tree plantations for firewood and for the softwood used in such products as paper, rayon, packaging and matches. Under such an option, some lands would still be degraded.
5. Agro-forestry - growing trees to meet individual farm biomass needs and possibly for sale of wood or non timber forest products.

Investment under a "feasible" scenario would total 59 million rupees a year.

Besides planting trees, India can mitigate emissions by

• increasing energy efficiency in the electric, industrial, transportation and domestic sectors, raising fuel efficiency and making fuel substitutes
• promoting renewable energy technologies

Beyond the nation's borders, the report notes it is important that a cooperative research program tackle vulnerabilities of the region and develop methods for measuring climate impact and assessing risk. A special effort must be made to ensure that scientific assessments reach policy makers and the general public.

Team Leader: Dr. R. K. Pachauri
FAX: (91-11) 462 1770
Report Prepared By: Tata Energy Research Institute