Indonesia Country Report
from Climate Alert Volume 7, No. 4 July-August 1994
Climate change will alter the daily lives of millions of Indonesians by threatening everything from adequate food and water supplies to ecotourism revenues. Reverberating throughout the natural and socioeconomic environments, sea level rise, increased temperatures, and disrupted rain cycles will affect coasts, river basins, and upland areas. Agriculture, fisheries, and other sectors which are central to Indonesian cultures, subsistence, and economies will be particularly sensitive to these changes.
As an archipelago of nearly 17,000 islands with a total coastline exceeding 81,000 kilometers, Indonesia will suffer significantly from even very small rises in mean sea level. Industry, infrastructure, and urban populations are concentrated in low lying coastal areas. Of a total population of 179.4 million people, approximately 110 million live in coastal areas. The inundation of seaports, beach resorts, and inland or coastal fisheries, intrusion of saltwater into coastal freshwater aquifers and shallow ground water, and changed tidal ranges would severely affect millions of Indonesians, if not by directly displacing them, by eliminating the industrial or agricultural zones or fisheries upon which their livelihoods and welfare depend, salinating their drinking water supplies, over-whelming flood control and sewer systems , or disrupting marketing and transportation networks and hence their access to goods.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will depress agricultural productivity, eliminate possibilities for continuing cultivation of some upland crops, accelerate soil erosion and siltation of waterways, disrupt fisheries, cause biodiversity loss, and raise the incidence of water- and mosquito- borne diseases. While changes in the atmospheric concentrations of certain gases may enhance tree growth, the net effect of climate change will hardly be positive. The adaptation measures required and economic opportunities foregone would cost Indonesia tens of billions of dollars annually.
In 1990, there were just over 2 million people living within a 2-meter elevation of the sea in settlements along the shore. Demographic projections suggest that 3.3 million people may be displaced by flooding and inundation of these low-lying settlements by the year 2070. The cost of replacing or rehabilitating their approximately 800,000 homes and resettling them is estimated at US$ 8 billion.
Sea level rise is of particular concern in Jakarta because parts of the city are already subsiding rapidly, apparently because of excessive exploitation of ground water, soil compression due to heavy construction and tectonic subsidence of northern Java.Very conservative estimates of these combined effects plus climate change suggest that sea level will rise to 2.0 meters above the current reference point, which is already submerged by 60 cm of water. Tens of thousands of structures would be inundated: homes, schools, industrial facilities, hospitals, office buildings.
In the energy sector, unless advanced CO2 scrubbing technology is applied, emissions from solid fossil fuels will grow due to future massive use of coal. Emissions from liquid fossil fuels will likely decrease significantly as Indonesia runs out of oil. Altogether, energy-derived GHG emissions are expected to increase three- to eight- fold over 1988 levels. Emissions from the transportation sector, which already accounts for 30% of Indonesia's energy consumption, are particularly alarming because of their rapid growth. Expanded rice cultivation may, substantially increasing harvest areas, biomass yields, and hence CH4 emissions.
Many emission-reducing actions available to Indonesia also have other benefits for the country's economy. Using least-cost mitigation options, the additional costs involved in installing the technologies to reduce emissions from transportation, industry, and electricity generation have been roughly estimated at $1 billion annually in 2001, increasing to $3 billion annually by 2021. The country team suggests that national strategies favor adaptation over mitigation and preventative over curative action.
Finally, since climate change originates from industrialized countries' development, they should be prepared to help Indonesia field the considerable financial and technical resources required to implement adaptation or mitigation responses. Indonesia should actively seek to collaborate more intensively with other developing countries, particularly the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, in exchanging information and strengthening their collective bargaining position in international negotiations concerning climate change.
Team Leader: Agus P. Sari
FAX: (62-21) 292 6163
Study Conducted By: Wahana Lingkungan Hidup Indonesia (WALHI) and Pelangi Indonesia
Implementing Agency: State Ministry for the Environment, Indonesia
