Sri Lanka Country Report
from Climate Alert Volume 7, No. 4 July-August 1994
By the year 2070, climate change in Sri Lanka is likely to have brought average temperatures to their highest level in the past 120 years and extreme weather that will cause high environmental damage. Impacts on the nation's coastal area, site of the largest concentration of people and economic activity, will be most severe with flooding and storm surges, beaches narrowed by erosion - leading to possible damage to hotels - and salt water invasion of estuaries and aquifers. The coastal population estimated at about 7.5 million in 2000 will have nearly doubled by 2070.
Population growth has already strained the land. In the last century, the amount of land per person has shrunk to one seventh of its former size. Agricultural activity has not declined and the forests have suffered. Pollution and climate change have already affected water resources but measuring the impact is difficult. Although rainfall may increase, if it is due to extreme events, much of the water may be lost through runoff to the sea. Large losses can be expected in paddies which are already affected by flooding, poor water, saline intrusion and iron toxicity. Sri Lanka is already quite vulnerable to drought and an increase in drought is assumed. So although larger harvests to feed an increasing number of mouths will require more water, less will be available and it will need to be managed more efficiently.
In the vital agriculture sector, more than one-fourth of the nation's GNP, projected flooding will ruin some farmland; rising seas and invading salt water will harm more.
Sri Lanka's variety of growing zones give it the ability to diversify and be less dependent on fluctuations of rice and wheat . Crop varieties and cropping patterns can be changed.. Yams, tubers, jack and bread fruit and other nontraditional fruit crops could be tried. However, conservation methods, organic farming and introduction of new crop varieties are hampered by a lack of knowledge and by the prospect of low yields in initial years. Crop intensity is now stagnant; higher intensity is possible.
Rational water pricing would help but some farmers oppose it. As an alternate, having farmers participate in managing irrigation is being tested. Other strategies include better use of rain water, growing crops that require less water, planting hillsides and reforesting. Sri Lanka's forest cover has shrunk to a critical level and is currently about one fourth of the country's area.
Few dramatic options are available for limiting greenhouse gas emissions, according to the report, although a large increase in energy demand is projected. Under the base case, steep increases in greenhouse emissions from the energy sector are projected with an increase of more than thirty-fold projected between 1990 and 2070. Through energy conservation, emissions of CO2 in both 2010 and 2070 could be held about 20 percent below the base case scenario. Industry could improve its biomass fuel conservation and experiment with alternate energies - wind, small hydropower, and later nuclear energy. New technologies could be introduced, along with more water transportation, city planning, improved telecommunications.
Most mitigation strategies are related to vehicles. While Sri Lanka's current contribution to worldwide greenhouse gas emissions is characterized as "insignificant" in the country report, it does state that vehicle emissions in urban areas are already causing problems and are an important target for mitigation
Creation of a national program is proposed for extreme events such as floods, drought and landslides, with a shift in emphasis from relief to mitigation and a decentralization of disaster management. The program includes enhancement of an early warning system, building of draft resistant structures and use of low cost disaster management technologies. Increased flooding will bring more disease -more contact between host and parasite - and warmer temperatures are conducive to the breeding of malaria and filaria vectors.
Poverty, the Sri Lanka team states, leads to bad land use and degradation, soil erosion, a shortage of water and perpetuation of rural destitution. Minimizing population growth and sustainable use of natural resources are recommended for alleviation. Response to climate change, the team notes, will depend on cooperation among key players on the global, regional and national levels.
Team Leader: Dr. Godfrey Gunatilleke
FAX: (941) 580 585
Study Conducted By: Marga Institute
Implementing Agency: Ministry for Environmental and Parliamentary Affairs, Sri Lanka
