ABSTRACTS - CLIMATE CHANGE AND ASIA

Asia-Wide Studies

Murdiyarso, D. 2000. "Adaptation to Climatic Variability and Change: Asian Perspectives on Agriculture and Food Security," Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 61, No. 1, March, pp. 123-131.
ABSTRACT: The impacts of climate change on potential rice production in Asia are reviewed in the light of the adaptation to climatic variability and change. Collaborative studies carried out by IRRI and US-EPA reported that using process-based crop simulation models increasing temperature may decrease rice potential yield up to 7.4% per degree increment of temperature. When climate scenarios predicted by GCMs were applied it was demonstrated that rice production in Asia may decline by 3.8% under the climates of the next century. Moreover, changes in rainfall pattern and distribution were also found suggesting the possible shift of agricultural lands in the region. The studies however have not taken the impacts of climatic variability into account, which often produce extreme events like that caused by monsoons and El Niño.
Shifts in rice-growing areas are likely to be constrained by land-use changes occurring for other developmental reasons, which may force greater cultivation of marginal lands and further deforestation. This should be taken into account and lead to more integrated assessment, especially in developing countries where land-use change is more a top-down policy rather than farmers' decision. A key question is: To what extent will improving the ability of societies to cope with current climatic variability through changing design of agricultural systems and practices help the same societies cope with the likely changes in climate?

Iglesias, A., L. Erda, and C. Rosenzweig. 1996. "Climate change in Asia: A review of the vulnerability and adaptation of crop production," Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 92, pp. 13-27.
ABSTRACT: A number of studies have provided quantitative assessments of the potential climate change impacts on crop production in Asia. Estimates take into account (a) uncertainty in the level of climate change expected, using a range of climate change scenarios; (b) physiological effects of carbon dioxide on the crops, and (c) different adaptive responses. In all cases, the efefcts of climate change induced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide depended on the counteracting effects among higher daily evapotranspiration rates, shortening of crop growth duration, and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and water-use efficiency. Although results varied depending on the geographical locations of the regions tested, the production of rice (the main food crop in the region) generally did not benefit from climate change. In South and Southeast Asia, there is concern about how climate change may affect El Niño/Souther Oscillation events, since these play a key role in determining agricultural production. Furthermore, problems arising from variability of water availability and soil degradation are currently major challenges to agriculture in the region. These problems may be exacerbated in the future if global climate change projections are realized. Many studies have considered strategies for improving agricultural management, based on the optimization of crop management decisions. Climate change analyses could be further strengthened by economic studies that integrate the potential use of natural resouces across sectors.

Sub-Regional Studies

Ososkova T., N. Gorelkin, and V. Chub. 2000. "Water resources of central Asia and adaptation measures for climate change," Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 61, pp. 161-166.
ABSTRACT: A large part of the central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake in the second half of the 20th century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meteorological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle, due to expected climate changes, are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are also considered.

Sharma, Keshav P., Charles J. Vorosmarty, and Berrien Moore III. 2000. "Sensitivity of the Himalayan Hydrology to Land-Use and Climatic Changes," Climatic Change, Vol. 47, No. 1-2, October, pp. 117-139.
ABSTRACT: Land-use and climatic changes are of major concerns in the Himalayan region because of their potential impacts on a predominantly agriculture-based economy and a regional hydrology dominated by the monsoons. Such concerns are not limited to any particular basin but exist throughout the region including the downstream plains. As a representative basin of the Himalayas, the Kosi Basin (54,000 km2) located in the mountainous area of the central Himalayan region was selected as a study area. We used water balance and distributed deterministic modeling approaches to analyze the hydrologic sensitivity of the basin to projected land-use, and potential climate change scenarios. Runoff increase was higher than precipitation increase in all the potential precipitation change scenarios applying contemporary temperature. The scenario of contemporary precipitation and a rise in temperature of 4 °C caused a decrease in runoff by two to eight percent depending upon the areas considered and models used. In the absence of climatic change, the results from a distributed water balance model applied in the humid south of the basin indicated a reduction in runoff by 1.3% in the scenario of maximum increase in forest areas below 4,000 m.

Luo, Qunying, and Erda Lin. 1999. "Agricultural Vulnerability and Adaptation in Developing Countries: The Asia-Pacific Region," Climatic Change, Vol. 43, No. 4, December, pp. 729-743.
ABSTRACT: During the last decades, a large number of climate change impact studies on agriculture have been conducted qualitatively and quantitatively in many regions of the Asia-Pacific. Changes in average climate conditions and climate variability will have a significant consequence on crop yields in many parts of the Asia-Pacific. Crop yield and productivity changes will vary considerably across the region. Vulnerability to climate change depends not only on physical and biological response but also on socioeconomic characteristics. Adaptation strategies that consider changes in crop varieties or in the timing of agricultural activities imply low costs and, if readily undertaken, can compensate for some of the yield loss simulated with the climate change scenarios. The studies reviewed here suggest that the regions of Tropical Asia appear to be among the more vulnerable; some areas of Temperate Asia also appear to be vulnerable.

Ramakrishnan, P. S. 1998. "Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Tropical Rain Forest Landscape," Climatic Change, Vol. 39, No. 2-3, July, pp. 583-600.
ABSTRACT: A potential impact of climate change in the south Asian context in general and the Indian subcontinent in particular is an increase in rainfall, in some areas up to 50%. Using an extensive information base available on the dynamics of landscape structure and function of the northeastern hill areas of India, scenarios on landscape changes, as an adaptation to climate change, have been constructed. Climate change would impose a variety of stresses on sustainable livelihood of the inhabitants of the rain-forested areas through stresses on ecosystem function. It is concluded that appropriate management strategies for natural forests and plantation forestry should go hand in hand with a comprehensive rural ecosystem rehabilitation plan.

Cross, Eleanor R. and Kenneth C. Hyams. 1996. "The Potential Effect of Global Warming on the Geographic and Seasonal Distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia," Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 104, No. 7, July, pp. 724-727.
ABSTRACT: The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming, temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1°C, 3°C, and 5°C, and the outcome variable coded as unknown in the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May, June, July, and August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations, 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional stations could become endemic with an increase of 1°C; 17 (15%) more with a 3°C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a 5°C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution, seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3°C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5°C rise.

Jacobs, Jeffrey W. 1996. "Adjusting to climate change in the Lower Mekong," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 6, No. 1, April, pp. 7-22.
ABSTRACT: The Mekong Committee is the principal institution for international water resource planning in the Lower Mekong River basin. It is likely to play several important roles in helping the people of the region adjust to any future changes in climate. The Committee appears to have a high degree of institutional resiliency and should be able to adjust its planning strategies well to future climate change. In the past several decades, as a result of conflict and low levels of funding, water resource development has been relatively slow in the Lower Mekong, with few large-scale structures. However, the low level of water development in the past may actually prove to have been an asset by having provided time for considering potential adjustments to future regional climate variability and change.

Lonergan, Stephen and Barb Kavanagh. 1991. "Climate change, water resources and security in the Middle East," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 1, No. 4, September, pp. 272-290.
ABSTRACT: The authors, focusing on the issue of water resources, set out and discuss the results of a study of the relationship between climate warming, resources and security, with an emphasis on the Middle East. The study includes an assessment of the extent to which climate warming is likely to occur in the region; the potential impacts of climate warming on key river systems; and finally a discussion of the extent to which these potential impacts are likely to contribute to political instability and conflict.

Country-Level Studies

Bangladesh

Mirza, M. Monirul Qader, R. A. Warrick, and N. J. Ericksen. 2003. "The Implications of Climate Change on Floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers in Bangladesh," Climatic Change, Vol. 57, No. 3, April, pp. 287-318.
ABSTRACT: Climate change in the future would have implications for river discharges in Bangladesh. In this article, possible changes in the magnitude, extent and depth of floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers in Bangladesh were assessed using a sequence of empirical models and the MIKE11-GIS hydrodynamic model. Climate change scenarios were constructed from the results of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) - CSIRO9, UKTR, GFDL and LLNL, which demonstrate a range of uncertainties. Changes in magnitude, depth and extent of flood discharge vary considerably between the GCMs. Future changes in the peak discharge of the Ganges River are expected to be higher than those for the Brahmaputra River. Peak discharge of the Meghna River may also increase considerably. As a result, significant changes in the spatial extent and depths of inundation in Bangladesh may occur. Faster changes in inundation are expected at low temperature increases than of higher temperature changes. Changes in land inundation categories may introduce substantial changes in rice agriculture and cropping patterns in Bangladesh. Reduction of increased flood hazard due to climate change requires strengthening of flood management policies and adaptation measures in Bangladesh.

Mirza, M. Monirul Qader. 2002. "Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 12, No. 2, July, pp. 127-138.
ABSTRACT: Bangladesh is very prone to flooding due to its location at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers and because of the hydro-meteorological and topographical characteristics of the basins in which it is situated. On average, annual floods inundate 20.5 per cent area of the country and this can reach as high as about 70 per cent during an extreme flood event. Floods cause serious damage to the economy of Bangladesh, a country with a low per capita income. Global warming caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. The use of climate change scenarios from four general circulation models as input into hydrological models demonstrates substantial increases in mean peak discharges in the GBM rivers. These changes may lead to changes in the occurrence of flooding with certain magnitude. Extreme flooding events will create a number of implications for agriculture, flood control and infrastructure in Bangladesh.

Ali, Anwar. 1999. "Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh," Climate Research, Vol. 12, pp. 109-116.
ABSTRACT: Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. This paper discusses the possible impacts of climate change in Bangladesh through tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion and back water effect. The possible increase in cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal, lying south of Bangladesh, due to climate change is looked at by analyzing the cyclone data for 119 yr. Both qualitative and quantitative discussions are made on cyclone intensity increase for a sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4°C. Different scenarios of storm surges under different climate change conditions are developed by using a numerical model of storm surges for the Bay of Bengal. Possible loss of land through beach erosion due to sea level rise on the eastern coast of Bangladesh is examined. Some discussions are also made on the impacts of back water effect due to sea level rise on flood situations in the country. Finally, a few remarks are made on the adaptation options for Bangladesh in the event of climate change.

Ali, A. 1996. "Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea-level rise through tropical cyclones and storm surges." Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 91, No. 1-2, pp. 171-179.
ABSTRACT: Bangladesh is frequently visited by natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods, droughts, tornadoes, and norwesters. Of these, tropical cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal and associated storm surges are the most disastrous. There are various reasons for the disastrous effects of cyclones and storm surges in Bangladesh. Superimposed on these disastrous effects, the effects of climate change, and any consequent sea-level rise are likely to add fuel to the fire. A rise in temperature is likely to change cyclone activity: cyclone intensity, if not cyclone frequency, may increase. As a result, storm surges may also increase substantially. Sea-level rise, increase in cyclone intensity, and consequent increases in storm surge heights will have disastrous effects on a deltaic country like Bangladesh, which is not much above the mean sea-level. This paper examines the climatology of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal for the last 110 years and trends in cyclone frequency and intensity. The phenomenon of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal is examined along with the primary reasons for the severity of storm surges in Bangladesh. The paper discusses both qualitatively and quantitatively, the impacts of rises in temperature on tropical cyclone intensity in Bangladesh. With the use of a mathematical model developed for the simulation of storm surges along the Bangladesh coast, various scenarios of storm surges are developed. Using lower and upper bounds of sea surface temperature rise of 2oC and 4oC and of sea-level rise of 0.3 to 10 m (according to the IPCC standard), the model simulates the maximum possible surges that are likely to occur under these conditions.

Karim Z, Hussain S G, and Ahmed M. 1996. "Assessing impacts of climatic variations on foodgrain production in Bangladesh." Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 92, No. 1-2, pp. 53-62.
ABSTRACT: A simulation study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of foodgrain production in Bangladesh to potential climate change. Simulation runs were made for high yield varieties of rice for Aus (March-August), Aman (July-September) and Boro (February-July), the traditional growing seasons, using the CERES-Rice model. Simulation runs were made for wheat, which is grown from November through March, using the CERES-Wheat model. Three analyses for temperature increases of 2oC and 4oC at three levels of CO2 (330, 580, and 660 ppm) were used. In the simulation, increased CO2 levels increased rice yields over baseline, and considerable spatial and temporal variations were noted. Higher temperatures reduced the yields in almost all study locations and in all seasons, and it was particularly pronounced with a 4oC increase. The detrimental effect of temperature rise was observed even with increased CO2 levels. Wheat yields increased with increased CO2 level in all three locations. The adverse effects of increased temperature were more pronounced for wheat than for rice at all levels of increased CO2. In the scenarios of the Canadian Climate Centre Model and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, both rice and wheat yields were decreased (34 and 31, respectively) over baseline in all seasons, especially in the Aus Season, and in all locations. The adverse effects of the climate under the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory scenario were more pronounced for wheat than for rice. The greatest reductions in aggregated production for both crops were noted at 330 ppm CO2 with a 4oC temperature rise. The greatest increases in aggregated production for rice and wheat were observed at a 660 ppm CO2 with no temperature increase.

China

Chen, Xiongwen, "Modeling the Effects of Global Climatic Change at the Ecotone of Boreal Larch Forest and Temperate Forest in Northeast China," Climatic Change, Vol. 55, No. 1-2, October, pp. 77-97.
ABSTRACT: The dynamics of the forest at the ecotone of the boreal forest and temperate forest in Northeast China were simulated using the adapted gap model BKPF under global climatic change (GFDL scenario) and doubled CO2 concentrations at 50 years in the future. The response of tree species and species with similar biological characteristics under global climate change and double CO2 concentrations were based on biophysical limits of the tree species in the area and their biological competition. The results showed that after 50 years the stand density and LAI (leaf area index) of the forest growing from a clear-cut would not be significantly different from those under current conditions. Stand productivity would increase about 7%, and stand aboveground biomass would increase 15%. However, the stand density of the current mature forest would be reduced by more than 20%. The stand would be dominated by Quercus mongolica Fisch., Populus davidiana Dode., Betula spp. and other broadleaved tree species, and Quercus mongolica would account for about 50% of the total density. The stand biomass would be reduced by more than 90%. Quercus mongolica would comprise about 57% of the total stand biomass. The stand productivity would not change significantly, but it would be comprised mainly of Quercus mongolica, Populus davidiana, Betula spp. The current stand height would decrease slightly. The stand LAI would decline dramatically, moreover, Quercus mongolica would comprise about 50% of the stand LAI.

Aiwen, Ying. 2000. "Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources," Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 61, No. 1, March, 187-191.
ABSTRACT:It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.

Gao, Qiong, Mei Yu, and Xiusheng Yang. 2000. "An Analysis of Sensitivity of Terrestrial Ecosystems in China to Climatic Change Using Spatial Simulation," Climatic Change, Vol. 47, No. 4, December, pp. 373-400. ABSTRACT: A computer simulation model of regional vegetation dynamics was applied to the terrestrial ecosystems of China to study the responses of vegetation to elevated CO2 and global climatic change. The primary production processes were coupled with vegetation structure in the model. The model was parameterized and partially validated in light of a large number of field observations made throughout China on primary productivity, 10 years of monthly meteorological data, 5 years of monthly normalized differential vegetation index observed by NOAA-11 satellite, and digital vegetation and terrain maps. Eight different climatic scenarios, set by perturbations from the present climate, 100% in atmospheric CO2 concentration, 2 °C in monthly mean temperature, and 20% in monthly precipitation, were applied to analyze the sensitivity of the Chinese terrestrial ecosystems to climatic change. Simulation results were obtained for each of the climatic scenarios with the model running toward equilibrium solutions at a time step of 1 month. Preliminary validation indicated that the model was capable of simulating the net primary productivity of most vegetation classes and the potential vegetation structure in China under present climatic conditions. The simulations for the altered climatic scenarios predicted that grasslands, shrubs, and conifer forests are more sensitive to environmental changes than evergreen broadleaf forests in warm, wet southeast China and desert vegetation in cold, arid northwest China. For less than 150% of changes in vegetation structure under altered climatic conditions, about three quarters of the changes in net primary productivity of individual vegetation classes were shown to be attributed to the changes in the corresponding distribution area.

Qin Boqiang, and Qun Huang. 1998. "Evaluation of the Climatic Change Impacts on the Inland Lake - A Case Study of Lake Qinghai, China," Climatic Change, Vol. 39, No. 4, August, pp. 695-714.
ABSTRACT: A catchment model coupled with a lake thermal model has been used to simulate the lake water balance of Lake Qinghai, a large inland lake on the northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. The sensitivity analyses show that changes in precipitation will produce larger changes in runoff than temperature and cloudiness, whereas changes in lake level are equally sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. With a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, four GCMs experiments predict warmer and wetter conditions in the Qinghai region than at present. The total runoff in the lake basin and evaporation will, in most cases, increase as conditions become warmer and wetter. The lake level changes would remain uncertain because the effects of an increase in precipitation are countered by the rise of temperature.

Erda L. 1996. "Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to global warming in China," Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 92, No. 1-2, pp. 63-73.
ABSTRACT: This paper discusses the vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultural sector of China to global warming. Based on a summarization of Chinese agricultural and general circulation model trends, adverse impacts on China's agriculture caused by a warming and drying climate were identified. Because of limited irrigation potential, the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture will be difficult. Six sensitive agricultural areas located on the edges of different agroecological zones, and seven provinces with high vulnerability to the impacts on agriculture, were studied. On the basis of an estimation of the potential supply of agricultural products and demand for food, the annual incremental costs for adaptation to climate change would be US $0.8-3.48 billion, without adaptation, the annual agricultural loss due to global warming would be US $1.37-79.98 billion from 2000 to 2050. Adaptive measures discussed include intensive management and the possibility of a tripartite structure of planting that would entail coordinated development of grain crops, feed crops, and cash crops.

Jinghua W., and L. Erda. 1996. "The impacts of potential climate change and climate variability on simulated maize production in China," Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 92, No. 1-2, pp. 75-85.
ABSTRACT: This study assessed the impacts of potential climate change on maize yields in China, using the CERES-Maize model under rainfed and irrigated conditions, based on 35 maize modelling sites in eastern China that characterize the main maize regions. The Chinese Weather Generator was developed to generate a long time series of daily climate data as baseline climate for 51 sites in China. Climate change scenarios were created from three equilibrium general circulation models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model; the high-resolution United Kingdom Meteorological Office model; and the Max Planck Institute model. At most sites, simulated yields of both rainfed and irrigated maize decreased under climate change scenarios, primarily because of increases in temperature, which shorten maize growth duration, particularly the grain-filling period. Decreases of simulated yields varied across the GCM scenarios. Simulated yields increased at only a few northern sites, probably because maize growth is currently temperature-limited at these relatively high latitudes. To analyze the possible impacts of climate variability on maize yield, the authors specified incremental changes to variabilities of temperature and precipitation and applied these changes to the GCM scenarios to create sensitivity scenarios. Arbitrary climate variability sensitivity tests were conducted at three sites in the North China Plain to test maize model response to a range of changes (0, +10, and +20) in the monthly standard deviations of temperature and monthly variation coefficients of precipitation. The results from the three sites showed the incremental climate variability caused simulated yield decreases, and the decreases in rainfed yield were greater than those of irrigated yield.

Smit B., and C. Yunlong. 1996. "Climate change and agriculture in China," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 6 No. 3, pp. 205-214.
ABSTRACT: The implications of climate change for agriculture and food are global concerns, and they are very important for China. The country depends on an agricultural system, which has evolved over thousands of years, to intensively exploit environmental conditions. The pressures on the resource base are accentuated by the prospect of climate change. This paper synthesizes information from a variety of studies on Chinese agriculture and climate. Historical studies document the impacts of past climate changes and extremes, and the types of adjustments which have occurred, the vulnerability of Chinese agriculture to climate change. Climate change scenarios are assessed relative to the current distribution of agro-climatic regions and farming systems. Notwithstanding the yield-enhancing effects of warming and elevated carbon dioxide levels, expected moisture deficits and uncertain changes in the timing and frequency of critical conditions indicate that there are serious threats to the stability and adaptability of China's food production system.

India

Kumar, K. S. Kavi, and Jyoti Parikh. 2001. "Indian agriculture and climate sensitivity," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 11, No. 2, July, pp. 147-154.
ABSTRACT: This study estimates the relationship between farm level net-revenue and climate variables in India using cross-sectional evidence. Using the observed reactions of farmers, the study seeks to understand how they have adapted to different climatic conditions across India. District level data is used for the analysis. The study also explores the influence of annual weather and crop prices on the climate response function. The estimated climate response function is used to assess the possible impacts of a `best-guess' climate change scenario on Indian agriculture.

Saseendran S. A., K.K. Singh, L.S. Rathore, S.V. Singh, and S.K. Sinha. 2000. "Effects of climate change on rice production in the tropical humid climate of Kerala, India," Climatic Change, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 459-514.
ABSTRACT: The plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent, as expected by the middle of the next century, taking into account the projected emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model experiment performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, is adopted for the study - which used the CERES-Rice v3. crop simulation model, calibrated and validated for suitability. The adopted scenario represented an approximately 1.5 °C increase in monsoon seasonal mean surface temperature, and a 2 mm increase in rainfall per day, between 2040-2049 with respect to the 1980s. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) business-as-usual scenario projection of plant usable concentration of CO2 about 460 PPM by the middle of this century, are also used in the crop model simulation. The sensitivity experiments of the rice model to CO2 concentration changes indicated that over Kerala, an increase in CO2 concentration leads to yield-increase due to its fertilization effect and also enhances the water-use efficiency of the paddy.

Mehrotra, R. 1999. "Sensitivity of run-off, soil moisture, and reservoir design to climate change in central Indian river basins," Climatic Change, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 725-757.
ABSTRACT: Climate change due to a doubling of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its possible impacts on the hydrological cycle is a matter of growing concern. Hydrologists are specifically interested in an assessment of the impacts on the occurrence and magnitude of run-off, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, and their temporal and spatial redistribution. Such impacts become all the more important as they may also affect the water availability in the storage reservoirs. This paper examines the regional effects of climate change on various components of the hydrological cycle, namely surface run-off, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration for three-drainage basis of central India. Plausible hypothetical scenarios of precipitation and temperature changes are used as input in a conceptual rainfall - run-off model. The influences of climate change on food, drought, and agriculture are highlighted. The response of hypothetical reservoirs in these drainage basins to climate variations has also been studied. Results indicated that the basin located in a comparatively drier region is more sensitive to climatic changes. The high probability of a significant effect of climate change on reservoir storage, especially for drier scenarios, necessitates the need of a further, more critical analysis of these effects.

Ravindranath, N.H., and R. Sukumar. 1998. "Climate Change and Tropical Forests in India," Climatic Change, Vol. 39, No. 2-3, July, pp. 563-581.
ABSTRACT: India has 64 Mha under forests, of which 72% are tropical moist deciduous, dry deciduous, and wet evergreen forest. Projected changes in temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are considered at regional level for India under two scenarios, the first involving greenhouse gas forcing, and the second, sulphate aerosols. Under the former model, a general increase in temperature and rainfall in all regions is indicated. This could potentially result in increased productivity, and shift forest type boundaries along attitudinal and rainfall gradients, with species migrating from lower to higher elevations and the drier forest types being transformed to moister types. The aerosol model, however, indicates a more modest increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in central and northern India, which would considerably stress the forests in these regions.
Although India seems to have stabilized the area under forest since 1980, anthropogenic stresses such as livestock pressure, biomass demand for fuelwood and timber, and the fragmented nature of forests will all affect forest response to changing climate. Thus, forest area is unlikely to expand even if climatically suitable, and will probably decrease in parts of northeast India due to extensive shifting cultivation and deforestation. A number of general adaptation measures to climate change are listed.

Indonesia

Amien, Istiqlal, Popi Redjekiningrum, Budi Kartiwa, and Woro Estiningtyas. 1999. "Simulated rice yields as affected by interannual climate variability and possible climate change in Java," Climate Research, Vol. 12, pp. 145-152.
ABSTRACT: About 60% of the rice produced in Indonesia is grown in the fertile soils of the island of Java. Introduction of the high-yielding rice varieties and improvement of cultural technique have increased rice production, and self-sufficiency was attained in 1984. However, increasing population and decreasing land for rice cultivation could threaten the food supply in the country. Rice production is also threatened by interannual climate variability and possible climate change. To provide policy-makers and planners with information to formulate a strategy to cope with interannual climate variability and the possible climate change, rice yields of 2 production areas on Java were simulated using the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) rice growth simulation model. The crop model predicted lower rice yields for different management options, compared with experiment plots, but predicted yields similar to or slightly higher than the farmers' yield. In general, the predictions relate quite well. The GISS, GFDL, and UKMO climate models predicted higher rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature in both locations. In the higher rainfall and lower temperature of the West Java site, the climate change scenarios reduced rice grain yield in both the first and second crops. During normal years in the relatively warmer and dryer climate of the East Java site, there was no significant yield reduction due to climate change, except under the UKMO scenario in the second crop. Because high temperature and CO2 concentration favor rice growth, development of more heat-tolerant varieties probably can compensate for the yield losses due to climate change in the future. Except for the GISS and GFDL climate scenarios in the first crop and the baseline climate scenario in the second crop in the West Java site, higher yield losses were predicted because of interannual climate variability. Since the dry spell threat is more imminent and frequent, to improve preparedness a short-term climate prediction for the tropical region is urgently needed.

Amien I et al. 1996. "Effects of interannual climate variability and climate change on rice yield in Java, Indonesia." Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 92, No. 1-2, pp. 29-39.
ABSTRACT: About 60% of the nearly 40 x 106 tonnes of rice produced in Indonesia is from the island of Java. However, the rice self-sufficiency that has been attained and maintained since 1984 has been affected by climate variability effects of the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and could be threatened by changing climate. To aid policy-makers and planners in formulating strategic policy options, the effects of recurring droughts and possible climate change on rice yields were studied using climate and crop models. Three models were used to simulate climate change: those of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. Several climate scenarios were generated for Ngawi in East Java, and Sukamandi in West Java. These models indicate that doubling GHG would increase solar radiation by a minimum 1.2%-2.1%, and transient climate change scenarios indicate that maximum and minimum temperatures would increase by 3.5% and 4.9%, in 2010, 6% and 9.8%, in 2030, and 11.1% and 15.7% respectively in 2050. The rainfall increase varies from 7% for West Java in 2010 to 8.7% for East Java in 2050. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model slightly under-predicts lowland rice yields of several experimental plots in three sites in Java and one site in Sumatra, but the results are almost equal to or a little higher than farm-level yields. Nevertheless, the simulation outputs and experimental plots yields are closely related with a coefficient of determination value of 87%. Changes in climate in the decades of 2010, 2030, and 2050 could drastically reduce rice yields: the rice yield is estimated to decrease by about one per cent annually in East Java and less in West Java. Currently, the rice yields in dry years are about one-half those of normal years.

Kazakhstan

Pilifosova, Olga V., Irina B. Eserkepova, and Svetlana A. Dolgih. 1997. "Regional Climate Change Scenarios under Global Warming in Kazakhstan," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 23-40.
ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to report on the development of regional climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan as the result of increasing of CO2 concentration in the global atmosphere. These scenarios are used in the assessment of climate change impacts on the agricultural, forest and water resources of Kazakhstan. Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan to assess both long-term (2× CO2 in 2075) and short-term (2000, 2010 and 2030) impacts were prepared. The climate conditions under increasing CO2 concentration were estimated from three General Circulation Models (GCM) outputs: the model of the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM), the model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the 1% transient version of the GFDL model (GFDL-T). The near-term climate scenarios were obtained using the probabilistic forecast model (PFM) to the year 2010 and the results of GFDL-T for years 2000 and 2030. A baseline scenario representing the current climate conditions based on observations from 1951 to 1980 was developed. The assessment of climate change in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of 100-years observations is given too. As a result of comparisons of the current climate (based on observed climate) the 1× CO2 output from GCMs showed that the GFDL model best matches the observed climate. The GFDL model suggests that the minimum increase in temperature is expected in winter, when most of the territory is expected to have temperatures 2.3-4.5 °C higher. The maximum (4.3 to 8.2 °C) is expected to be in spring. CCCM scenario estimates an extreme worming above 11 °C in spring months. GFDL-T outputs provide an 'intermediate' scenario.

Pakistan

Siddiqui, K. M., Iqbal Mohammad, and Mohammad Ayaz. 1999. "Forest ecosystem climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies for Pakistan," Climate Research, Vol. 12, No. 2-3, pp. 195-203.
ABSTRACT: A study was carried out to determine the impact of climate change on natural forest ecosystems in Pakistan assuming a 0.3°C rise in temperature and a precipitation change of 0, +1 and -1% decade-1 with 1990 as the base year. The current atmospheric CO2 concentration of 350 ppmv was assumed to increase to 425 ppmv in 2020, 500 ppmv in 2050 and 575 ppmv in 2080. The BIOME3 model was used for computer simulation of 9 dominant plant types, or biomes. Of these, 3 biomes (alpine tundra, grassland/arid woodlands and deserts) showed a reduction in their area, and 5 biomes (cold conifer/mixed woodland, cold conifer/mixed forests, temperate conifer/mixed forests, warm conifer/mixed forests, and steppe/arid shrub lands) showed an increase in their area as a result of climate change. Enhanced CO2 concentration in the atmosphere appeared to have a pronounced effect on the biomes' area. Net primary productivity exhibited an increase in all biomes and scenarios. However, there is a possibility of forest dieback occurring and of time lag before the dominant plant types have enough time to adjust to changed climate and migrate to new sites. In the intervening period, they would be vulnerable to environmental and socio-economic disturbances (e.g. erosion, deforestation, and land-use changes). Thus, the overall impact of climate change on the forest ecosystems of Pakistan could be negative. A number of adaptation strategies are proposed to cope with climate change impacts on forest ecosystems.

Wescoat, Jr, James L. 1991. "Managing the Indus River basin in light of climate change: Four conceptual approaches, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 1, No. 5, December, pp. 381-395.
ABSTRACT: Global warming raises troubling questions about the ecological and economic future of large irrigated river basins such as the Indus River in Pakistan. But it is not clear how potential impacts might best be identified or addressed. This article reports on a multidisciplinary study of four distinct conceptual approaches to climate change: climate scenarios assessment; critical water management problems; historic antecedents and analogies; and Muslim political reconstruction. Current scientific research emphasizes the first approach, but the other three may be more important for water managers in the basin. The article reviews previous research on water resources effects of climate change; introduces the Indus basin; discusses the four conceptual approaches; and finally discusses prospects for coordinating them.

Philippines

Jose, Aida M., and Nathaniel A. Cruz. 1999. "Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines: water resources," Climate Research, Vol. 12, pp. 77-84.
ABSTRACT: The Philippines, like many of the world's poor countries, will be among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of its limited resources. As shown by previous studies, occurrences of extreme climatic events like droughts and floods have serious negative implications for major water reservoirs in the country. A preliminary and limited assessment of the country's water resources was undertaken through the application of general circulation model (GCM) results and climate change scenarios that incorporate incremental changes in temperature and rainfall and the use of a hydrological model to simulate the future runoff-rainfall relationship. Results showed that changes in rainfall and temperature in the future will be critical to future inflow in the Angat reservoir and Lake Lanao, with rainfall variability having a greater impact than temperature variability. In the Angat reservoir, runoff is likely to decrease in the future and be insufficient to meet future demands for water. Lake Lanao is also expected to have a decrease in runoff in the future. With the expected vulnerability of the country's water resources to global warming, possible measures to cope with future problems facing the country's water resources are identified.

Perez, Rosa T., Leoncio A. Amadore, and Renato B. Feir. 1999. "Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines coastal sector," Climate Research, Vol. 12, pp. 97-107.
ABSTRACT: The Manila Bay coastal area in The Philippines was evaluated for the possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change and to assess adaptive responses to such threats. The coastal area is an important region in terms of commercial, industrial, agricultural, and aquacultural activities of The Philippines. Results show that areas along the coast if inundated by a 1 m sea level rise would include coastal barangays from 19 municipalities of Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Cavite and would cover an area of 5555 ha. Proposed response strategies consist of protecting the coast by building sea walls; institutional actions such as formulation of setback policies and construction regulations; and adaptive planning in the context of an integrated coastal zone management to address the short- and long-term problems, with the involvement of communities in the area. Information, education, and communication are essential along with the technical and scientific efforts to achieve a well-balanced adaptation plan.

Saudi Arabia

Alkolibi, Fahad M. "Possible Effects of Global Warming on Agriculture and Water Resources in Saudi Arabia: Impacts and Responses," Climatic Change, Vol. 54, No. 1-2, July, pp. 225-245.
ABSTRACT: This study assesses the possible impact of climatic change on Saudi Arabia's agriculture and water supplies using climatic change scenarios from GCMs (General Circulation Models) and related research. The resulting assessment indicates that an increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation could have a major negative impact on agriculture and water supplies in Saudi Arabia. To find signs of climatic change in Saudi Arabia a preliminary assessment of systematic changes in temperature and precipitation was made, based on the records of four Saudi weather stations. The analysis of this data, which dates back to 1961, shows no discernable signs of climatic change during the study period. Such data is, however, limited both spatially and temporally and cannot provide conclusive evidence to confirm climatic changes projected by GCMs. Nevertheless, in the light of recent climatic conditions and rapid population growth, Saudi decision-makers are urged to adopt a `no regret' policy. Ideally, such a policy would include measures to avoid future environmental or socioeconomic problems that may occur in the event of significant climatic change.

Sri Lanka

Somaratne, S. and A. H. Dhanapala. 1996. "Potential impact of global climate change on forest distribution in Sri Lanka," Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 92, No. 1-2, pp. 129-135.
ABSTRACT: The potential impact of climate change on forest distribution in Sri Lanka was evaluated. The Holdridge Life Zone Classification was used along with current climate and climate change scenarios derived from two general circulation models (GCM)-the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDL) and the Canadian Climate Centre Model (CCCM), at 0.5o x 0.5o resolution. Current and future distributions of life zones were mapped with a Geographic Information System. These maps were then used to calculate the extent of the impact areas for the climate-change scenarios. The current distribution pattern of forest vegetation includes tropical very dry forest (6%), tropical dry forest (56%), and tropical wet forest (38%). Results obtained using the GFDL model show an increase in tropical dry forest (8%) and decrease in tropical wet forest (2%). The CCCM scenario predicted an increase in tropical very dry forest (5%) and tropical dry forest (7%), and a decrease in tropical wet forest (11%). Both models predicted, a northward shift of tropical wet forest into areas currently occupied by tropical dry forest. The application of GCMs such as the GFDL model and the CCM, as well as Holdridge Life Zone Classification, to estimate the effect of climate change on Sri Lankan forests in this paper indicates that these methods are suitable as a tool for such investigations in Sri Lanka.

Wijeratne, M. A. 1996. "Vulnerability of Sri Lanka tea production to global climate change," Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol. 92, No. 1-2, pp. 87-94.
ABSTRACT: The tea industry is Sri Lanka's main net foreign exchange earner and source of income for the majority of labourers. Tea yield is greatly influenced by weather, and especially by droughts, which cause irreparable losses because irrigation is seldom used on tea plantation. At the other extreme, heavy rains erode top soil and wash away fertilizers and other chemicals. In the recently published Sri Lanka country report on climate change, it was reported that the island will experience extreme rainfall intensities and warmer temperatures as a result of climate change. The possibility of a 10% increase in the length of dry and wet seasons per year in the main plantation area was also indicated. Thus both drought damages and soil losses in tea production areas will increase in the years to come. An analysis of the results of field experiments with weather data shows that increases in temperature, soil moisture deficit, and saturation vapour pressure deficit in the low elevations will adversely affect growth and yield of tea. Reports have also shown that about 30 cm of soil has already been eroded from upland tea plantations. Under these circumstances, the tea industry in Sri Lanka is clearly vulnerable to predicted climate changes, and subsequently greater economic, social, and environmental problems. This paper discusses the various aspects of the adverse effects of climate change on Sri Lanka's tea industry.

Taiwan

Yu, Pao-Shan,Tao-Chang Yang, and Chien-Chih Chou. 2002. "Effects of Climate Change on Evapotranspiration from Paddy Fields in Southern Taiwan," Climatic Change, Vol. 54, No. 1-2, July, pp. 165-179.
ABSTRACT: The major objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration from paddy fields. A sensitivity analysis of meteorological variables at the Kao-Hsiung station, one of meteorological stations in southern Taiwan, was carried out using the modified Penman formula. Forty-eight-year records of temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, and precipitation depth comprised the database. Trend and persistence analyses of the data were performed using the Mann-Kendall test, the Cumulative Deviation test, Linear Regression, and the Autocorrelation Coefficient. The results indicated that only temperature and relative humidity have significant long-term trends and persistence. Two climatic scenarios, viz. (1) linear extrapolation of climatic trends and (2) the predictions of General Circulation Models (GCMs), were assumed to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The study revealed that evapotranspiration from paddy fields increased under both climatic scenarios studied.

Vietnam

Trevor H. Booth, Nguyen Hoang Nghia, Miko U. F. Kirschbaum, Clive Hackett, and Tom Jovanovic. 1999. "Assessing Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Species Important for Forestry in Vietnam," Climatic Change, Vol. 41, No. 1, January, pp. 109-126.
ABSTRACT: The likely effects on two tree species of a range of scenarios of climatic and atmospheric change expected by the year 2050 are investigated using a climatic mapping program, a simple simulation model and a process-based simulation model. Styrax tonkinensis is a native species for which relatively little information is available. Acacia mangium is an introduced species, which is important for pulp production in several other countries, and for which there is considerable information for growth and utilization. A climatic mapping program is used to show areas which may be suitable for these species under present and predicted conditions. Two simulation models are used to investigate likely effects on productivity of the two species for a range of climatic change scenarios for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The estimated changes in production are predicted to be relatively small, though uncertainities associated with the simulations are quite high. However, the models highlight areas where more data are needed and also suggest some key regions in Vietnam which would be worth monitoring to detect early signs of the effects of climatic and atmospheric change.

Yemen

Alderwish, Ahmed, and Mohamed Al-Eryani. 1999. "An approach for assessing the vulnerability of the water resources of Yemen to climate change," Climate Research, Vol. 12, pp. 85-89.
ABSTRACT: This paper outlines the methodology followed in the study of climate change impact on water resources in Yemen and presents initial results on the vulnerability of the water resources system. The selected modeling strategy is used for the first time in climate change assessment studies and is briefly discussed. This strategy comprised 4 interacting models: a Rainfall-Runoff Model (RRM), an Irrigation Simulation Model (ISM), a Groundwater Simulation Model (GSM), and an Economic Policy Model (EPM). Adequate indication of the water system's sensitivity to climate change in arid and semi-arid regions can only be achieved when appropriate temporal and spatial scales of the assessment are used. For instance, only hourly or daily time step models can capture climate impacts on floods of ephemeral wadis. The degree of accuracy required should also be determined by the scarcity/availability of the resources.