ABSTRACTS - CLIMATE CHANGE AND EUROPE

Country-Level StudiesEurope-Wide Studies

Rotmans, Jan, Mike Hulme, and Thomas E Downing. 1994. "Climate change implications for Europe: An application of the ESCAPE model," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 4, No. 2, June, pp. 97-124.
ABSTRACT: Policy makers, charged both with identifying possible national response strategies to climate change and with negotiating international conventions and protocols, need tools which enable them to estimate the implications for climate change of a wide range of policy options and which summarize the uncertainties surrounding global climate change. One such tool, recently constructed for the Environment Directorate of the Commission of the European Communities,1 consists of an interactive climate change impact assessment model called ESCAPE. This paper describes the model framework and illustrates the use of ESCAPE using a range of input scenarios reflecting different global policy, economic and technological futures. Three important characteristics of the global climate change problem are well illustrated: past emissions of greenhouse gases and the inertia of the global development path have committed the world to future warming irrespective of current and near-future policy interventions; the efficacy of a climate policy implemented solely within the EC on altering the course of future climate change is very small; and the impacts of climate change on the economy and environment of the European Community differ markedly between northern and southern Europe.

Sectoral Studies

Agriculture

Jones, P. D., D. H. Lister, K. W. Jaggard, and J. D. Pidgeon. 2003. "Future Climate Impact on the Productivity of Sugar Beet (Beta vulgaris L.) in Europe," Climatic Change, Vol. 58, No. 1-2, May, pp. 93-108.
ABSTRACT: The impact of future climate change on sugar beet yields is assessed over western Europe using future (2021-2050) climate scenario data from a General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Broom's Barn simulation model of rain-fed crop growth and yield. GCM output for the 1961-1990 period is first compared with observed climate data and shown to be reliable for regions west of 24° E. Comparisons east of this meridian were less reliable with this GCM (HadCM2) and so were omitted from simulations of crop yield. Climate change is expected to bring yield increases of around 1 t/ha of sugar in northern Europe with decreases of a similar magnitude in northern France, Belgium and west/central Poland, for the period 2021-2050. Averaged for the study area (weighted by current regional production), yields show no overall change due to changed climate. However, this figure masks significant increases in yield potential (due to accelerated growth in warmer springs) and in losses due to drought stress. Drought losses are predicted to approximately double in areas with an existing problem and to become a serious new problem in NE France and Belgium. Overall west and central Europe simulated average drought losses rise from 7% (1961-1990) to 18% (2021-2050). The annual variability of yield (as measured by the coefficient of variation) will increase by half, from 10% to 15% compared to 1961-1990, again with potentially serious consequences for the sugar industry. The importance of crop breeding for drought tolerance is further emphasised. These changes are independent of the 9% yield increase which we estimate, on the basis of work by Demmers-Derks et al. (1998), is the likely direct effect of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2021-2050.

Hartig, Ellen Kracauer, Ognyan Grozev, and Cynthia Rosenzweig. 1997. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Wetlands in Eastern Europe: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Policy," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 107-121.
ABSTRACT: Naturally-occurring wetlands perform such functions as flood control, pollution filtration, nutrient recycling, sediment accretion, groundwater recharge and water supply, erosion control, and plant and wildlife preservation. A large concentration of wetlands is located in Eastern Europe. A significant amount of Eastern European wetlands has been converted to agricultural use in the past, and remaining wetlands are subject to agricultural drainage. Drained wetlands are used as prime agriculture lands for a variety of food crops. Other agricultural uses of wetlands range from growing Phragmites australis (common reed) for thatch and livestock feed, to collecting peat for heating and cooking fuel. Altered hydrologic regimes due to global climate change could further exacerbate encroachment of agricultural land use into wetlands. The vulnerability and adaptation studies of the U.S. Country Studies Program are used to analyze where climate change impacts to agriculture may likewise impact wetland areas. Scenarios indicate higher temperatures and greater evapotranspiration altering the hydrologic regime such that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Russia, and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Runoff is identified as a key hydrological parameter affecting wetland function. Since wetland losses may increase as a result of climate-change-induced impacts to agriculture, precautionary management options are reviewed, such as establishing buffer areas, promoting sustainable uses of wetlands, and restoration of farmed or mined wetland areas. These options may reduce the extent of negative agricultural impacts on wetlands due to global climate change.

Carter, T. R., J. H. Porter, and M. L. Parry. 1991. "Climatic warming and crop potential in Europe: Prospects and uncertainties," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 1, No. 4, September, pp. 291-312.
ABSTRACT: Climatic warming due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to lead to largescale shifts in the pattern of agricultural potential. This article reports the results of a study to Investigate the broad-scale sensitivity of crop potential to climatic change in Europe. A simple agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), has been related to the minimum requirements for the successful cultivation of three crops: grain maize, sunflower and soya bean. With the aid of a computer mapping system, ETS has been mapped across Europe on the basis of present climate and of scenarios of future climate. In this way, the effects of changes in climate can be expressed as spatial shifts in the limits of crop potential, and the uncertainities in the estimates can be interpreted in terms of the likelihood of particular regions becoming climatically suitable for crop cultivation. The estimates point to a considerable dislocation of agricultural potential occurring over a matter of only several decades.

Human Health

Species/Ecosystems

Sukopp, Herbert and Angelika Wurzel. 2003. "The Effects of Climate Change on the Vegetation of Central European Cities," Urban Habitats, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 3-26.
PDF: http://www.urbanhabitats.org/v01n01/climatechange_pdf.pdf
ABSTRACT: Since the 1850s the effects of global warming have been anticipated by the rise of temperature in many big cities. In addition, vegetation changes in central European cities have been well documented. This paper explores the changing urban distribution of some ruderal herbaceous species and discusses changes in distribution and physiological changes in tree and shrub species in response to this rise in temperature. Examples of affected species covered here include Acer negundo, Ailanthus altissima, Amelanchier spicata, Berberis julianae, Buddleia davidii, Colutea arborescens, Cornus alba, C. stolonifera, Cotoneaster bullatus, Cytisus multiflorus, C. striatus, Juglans regia, Laburnum anagyroides, Ligustrum vulgare, Mahonia aquifolium, Paulownia tomentosa, Philadelphus coronarius, Platanus ??hispanica, Populus ??canadensis, Prunus armeniaca, P. laurocerasus, P. mahaleb, P. persica, P. serotina, Pyrus communis, Quercus cerris, Q. rubra, Q. robur, Ribes aureum, Robinia pseudacacia, Sambucus spp., Sorbus intermedia agg., Symphoricarpos albus, and Syringa vulgaris. The responses of some woody scramblers and creepers are also examined. For many of these species, there was a long lag time between introduction and invasion in the wild. We briefly review phenological investigations, including studies of Aesculus hippocastanum and Tilia euchlora. Finally, we consider the extent to which cities can act as simulators of global climate change. We conclude that although other ecological and socioeconomic factors are affecting the vegetation in urban areas, many of the nonnative invasive species found colonizing cities (or naturalizing within them) originate in warmer areas and are benefiting from the more favorable climate.

Theurillat, Jean-Paul and Antoine Guisan. 2001. "Potential Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation in the European Alps: A Review," Climatic Change, Vol. 50, No. 1-2, July, pp. 77-109.
ABSTRACT: Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Water Resources

Middelkoop, H., K. Daamen, D. Gellens, et al. 2001. "Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources Management in the Rhine Basin," Climatic Change, Vol. 49, No. 1-2, April, pp. 105-128.
ABSTRACT: The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin (CHR) has carried out a research project to assess the impact of climate change on the river flow conditions in the Rhine basin. Along a bottom-up line, different detailed hydrological models with hourly and daily time steps have been developed for representative sub-catchments of the Rhine basin. Along a top-down line, a water balance model for the entire Rhine basin has been developed, which calculates monthly discharges and which was tested on the scale of the major tributaries of the Rhine. Using this set of models, the effects of climate change on the discharge regime in different parts of the Rhine basin were calculated using the results of UKHI and XCCC GCM-experiments. All models indicate the same trends in the changes: higher winter discharge as a result of intensified snow-melt and increased winter precipitation, and lower summer discharge due to the reduced winter snow storage and an increase of evapotranspiration. When the results are considered in more detail, however, several differences show up. These can firstly be attributed to different physical characteristics of the studied areas, but different spatial and temporal scales used in the modelling and different representations of several hydrological processes (e.g., evapotranspiration, snow melt) are responsible for the differences found as well. Climate change can affect various socio-economic sectors. Higher temperatures may threaten winter tourism in the lower winter sport areas. The hydrological changes will increase flood risk during winter, whilst low flows during summer will adversely affect inland navigation, and reduce water availability for agriculture and industry. Balancing the required actions against economic cost and the existing uncertainties in the climate change scenarios, a policy of `no-regret and flexibility' in water management planning and design is recommended, where anticipatory adaptive measures in response to climate change impacts are undertaken in combination with ongoing activities.

Arnell, Nigel W. 1999. "The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe: a continental perspective," Global Environmental Change, Vol. 9, No. 1, April, p. 5-23.
ABSTRACT: This paper outlines the effects of climate change by the 2050s on hydrological regimes at the continental scale in Europe, at a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°. Hydrological regimes are simulated using a macro-scale hydrological model, operating at a daily time step, and four climate change scenarios are used. There are differences between the four scenarios, but each indicates a general reduction in annual runoff in southern Europe (south of around 50°N), and an increase in the north. In maritime areas there is little difference in the timing of flows, but the range through the year tends to increase with lower flows during summer. The most significant changes in flow regime, however, occur where snowfall becomes less important due to higher temperatures, and therefore both winter runoff increases and spring flow decreases: these changes occur across a large part of eastern Europe. In western maritime Europe low flows reduce, but further east minimum flows will increase as flows during the present low flow season - winter - rise. "Drought" was indexed as the maximum total deficit volume below the flow exceeded 95% of the time: this was found to increase in intensity across most of western Europe, but decrease in the east and north. The study attempted to quantify several sources of uncertainty, and showed that the effects of model uncertainty on the estimated change in runoff were generally small compared to the differences between scenarios and the assumed change in global temperature by 2050.

Strzepek, Kenneth M., and David N. Yates. 1997. "Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrologic Resources of Europe: A Simplified Continental Scale Analysis," Climatic Change, Vol. 36, No. 1-2, May - June, pp. 79-92.
ABSTRACT: U.S. Country Studies supported analyses of climate change impacts on water resources have been completed or are underway in the following Central and Eastern European nations: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Estonia, Russian Federation, and the Ukraine. Climate change impacts on the hydrologic resources of these countries is being performed at the river basin scale using monthly water balance models using GCM-based climate scenarios. The authors have performed a regional analysis of climate change impacts on the Hydrologic Resources of Europe using the Turc Annual Model. The regional analysis was done with GIS methodolgies using regional climate databases. The regional results were compared to the U.S. Country Studies hydrologic assessmnent results to validiate the use of this simplified methodolgy for making regional climate change assessment. Results from three countries showed acceptable performace of the annual approach . Using GCM-based climate scenarios regional analysis of potential climate change impacts on the hydrologic resources of Europe was conducted and national and regional results are presented.