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Africa | Asia | Australasia | Europe | Latin America | North America | Polar Regions | Small Island States
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Agriculture & Food Security | Human Health | Hydrologic Resources & Extreme Weather | Coastal Resources | Security | Species, Diversity, and Ecosystems
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THERMAL STRESS
Abstracts
Guest, C.S., K. Willson, A.J. Woodward,
et al. 1999. "Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective
study, 1979-1990, and synoptic predictions of the health
impacts of climate change in 2030," Climate Research,
Vol. 13, pp. 1-15.
ABSTRACT: Quantitative assessment of climatic and environmental
health risks is necessary because changes in climate are
expected. We therefore aimed to quantify the relationship
between climatic extremes and mortality in the 5 largest
Australian cities during the period 1979-1990. We then applied
the relationship determined between recent climatic conditions
and mortality to scenarios for climate and demographic change,
to predict potential impacts on public health in the cities
in the year 2030. Data on mortality, denominator population
and climate were obtained. The expected numbers of deaths
per day in each city were calculated. Observed daily deaths
were compared with expected rates according to temperature
thresholds. Mortality was also examined in association with
temporal synoptic indices (TSI) of climate, developed by
principal component and cluster analysis. According to observed-expected
threshold analyses, for the 5 cities combined, the annual
mean excess of deaths attributable to temperature over the
period 1979-1990 was 175 for the 28°C threshold. This
sum of statistically significant differences from the 5
cities was the greatest excess found in association with
any threshold considered in the range of temperatures that
occur. Excess mortality for the hottest days in summer was
greater than for the coldest days in winter. Temperature-mortality
relationships were little modified by socio-economic status.
TSI analyses produced similar results: using this method,
the climate-attributable mortality in the 5 cities was approximately
160 deaths yr-1, although this number was evenly distributed
across summer and winter. Persons in the group aged 65 yr
and older were the most vulnerable. After allowing for increases
in population, and combining all age groups, the synoptic
method showed a 10% reduction in mortality in the year 2030.
We conclude that the 5 largest Australian cities exhibit
climate-attributable mortality in both summer and winter.
Given the scenarios of regional warming during the next
3 decades, the expected changes in mortality due to direct
climatic effects in these major coastal Australian cities
are minor.
Martens, W. J. M. 1998. "Climate
change, thermal stress and mortality changes," Social
Science & Medicine, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 331-344.
ABSTRACT: One of the potential effects of an anthropogenically
induced climate change is a change in mortality related
to thermal stress. In this paper, existing literature on
the relationship between average temperatures and mortality
is evaluated. By means of a simple meta-analysis an aggregated
effect of a change in temperature on mortality is estimated
for total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. These
effect estimates are combined with projections of changes
in baseline climate conditions of 20 cities, according to
climate change scenarios of three General Circulation Models
(GCMs). The results indicate that for most of the cities
included, global climate change is likely to lead to a reduction
in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality. This
effect is most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in
elderly people in cities which experience temperate or cold
climates at present. The sensitivity of the results to physiological
and socio-economical adaptation is examined. However, more
research is necessary to extend this work by inclusion of
data from a wider range of populations.
Kalkstein, Laurence S., and
J. Scott Greene. 1997. "An Evaluation of Climate/Mortality
Relationships in Large U.S. Cities and the Possible Impacts
of a Climate Change," Environmental Health Perspectives,
Vol. 105, No. 1, pp. 84-93.
ABSTRACT: A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is
used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they
presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming
might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with
metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are
analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer
for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular
air masses are present. A very warm air mass of maritime
origin is most important in the eastern United States, which
when present can increase daily mortality by as many as
30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry air mass is important
in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase
daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South
and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships
in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in
mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although
daily winter mortality is usually higher than summer, the
causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality
do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate
climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated
that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter
mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize
to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in
weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms
as the models predict.
Langford I.H., and G. Bentham.
1995. "The potential effects of climate change on winter
mortality in England and Wales," International Journal
of Biometeorology, Vol. 38, pp. 141-147.
ABSTRACT: In Britain death rates from several important
causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases,
rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close
association between temperature and mortality suggests that
climate change as a result of global warming may lead to
a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives
a brief introductory review of the literature on the links
between cold conditions and health, and statistical models
are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature
and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for
England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence
of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly
significant negative associations were found between temperature
and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis,
pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease.
The statistical models developed from this analysis were
used to compare death rates for current conditions with
those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer
climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures
predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter
deaths each year with the largest contribution being from
mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary
estimates might change when further research is able to
make into account a number of additional factors affecting
the relationship between mortality and climate.
