By John C. Topping, Jr. President, Climate Institute

World attention has focused remarkably quickly on the grave humanitarian crisis in South Asia produced by the December 26^th tsunami that swept well over 150,000 to their deaths and has made many more homeless. Casualty toll estimates are likely to mount as recovery operations continue and disease may claim many who survived the initial onslaught of the sea. The remarkable courage of the people of South Asia and the quick international response to this crisis are, however, both quite encouraging.

There is no evidence that this tragedy is due to the enhanced greenhouse effect that may in fact already be increasing the incidence of severe storms and threatening greater storm surge and inundation. This tsunami was caused by a massive earthquake off the Indonesian coast that had a terrifying ripple effect across thousands of miles of the ocean. Earthquakes, asteroids or even volcanic eruptions might produce such tsunamis with devastating consequences for coastal regions in their path. To date there exists thanks to the initiative of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and various partner groups abroad a tsunami warning system for the Northern Pacific, an area of particular vulnerability. In December 2004 just before the South Asia tragedy a NOAA crew on the NOAA Research Vessel Ronald H. Brown was redeploying the only tsunami detection buoy in the Southern Hemisphere off the coast of Chile. This buoy and related systems should provide warnings to people along the west coast of South America about approaching tsunamis. No tsunami detection systems yet are in place in the Indian and Atlantic Ocean regions, but in the wake of the South Asian disaster, NOAA and its partner groups abroad are likely to move quickly to fill these gaps.

Still, even had a more comprehensive system been in effect prior to the tsunami, damage would have been quite extensive as few nations in Asia had warning systems to get the word quickly to often remote coastal villages. Such relatively inexpensive systems can produce huge benefits in reducing loss of life from sea borne- disasters.  The most dramatic example of this has occurred in Bangladesh that has by itself experienced about ten times the fatalities of the December 26, 2004 tsunami in a series of tropical cyclones since 1970.  One tropical cyclone in 1970 may have taken the lives of as many as 1.2 million Bangladeshi; another in 1991 appears to have claimed about 138,000 lives. In response to this huge carnage from the sea Bangladesh after the 1991 tragedy began to develop and implement a relatively inexpensive response system involving tropical cyclone shelters and short wave radio links to villages.  Some warning systems and shelters existed before the 1991 cyclone but many failed to heed the warnings or hesitated for cultural reasons to use the shelters. As this paper by a Bangladeshi sociologist indicates, these enhanced systems have had a real impact in reducing loss of life in subsequent tropical cyclones. Although a tsunami moving at five or six hundred miles an hour provides less opportunity to get the word out to those in vulnerable locations than a much slower moving tropical cyclone, typhoon or hurricane (these are terms used respectively in the Indian Ocean, Pacific and Atlantic or Caribbean regions for essentially the same kind of storm), it is likely that an effective local warning system would reduce fatalities from both tsunamis and severe storms.

One of the few bright spots in the terrible tsunami tragedy of December 26^th, 2004 was the success of mangrove planting in reducing greatly fatalities in coastal villages of South India. Responding to the threat of tropical cyclones, that are likely to intensify in force as the earth warms, the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation, based in Chennai, India, has worked with Indian villagers for the past 14 years to preserve and expand mangrove ecosystems as a line of defense against tidal waves on India’s eastern coastline. The mangroves in Pitchavaran and the Muthupet region acted like a shield and bore the brunt of the tsunami, saving many lives (The Hindu). The Swaminathan Foundation is an active partner of the Climate Institute in the Endangered Islands Campaign and much of its focus is on reinforcing the role of mangroves as a buffer against the sea.

The recent South Asian tragedy may provide a number of lessons that are of use in fashioning an effective strategy for responding to climate change and sea level rise. Strategies for responding to severe storms and tsunamis may be mutually supportive whichever event occurs. An effective warning system for both severe storms and tsunamis will require a blend of high tech detection and monitoring systems using aerial surveillance, satellites and detection buoys as well as effective and relatively inexpensive systems for getting the word quickly to remote locations. As the South Indian experience shows, smart anticipatory planning for climate change may involve use of natural systems to tame the fury of nature and may yield dividends, even in an event triggered by a non-climatic event such as an earthquake. It is also likely that storm surge mapping such as that pioneered by the International Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University will be of value alike in dealing with severe storms, greenhouse induced sea level rise and tsunamis.

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